PENGU's Breakout Momentum: Is This the Start of a Major Bull Run?

The Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) token has captured significant attention in late November 2025, with a 26% price surge following a strategic breakout above key resistance levels of $0.0100–$0.0105 and a test of the $0.0125–$0.0135 range. This movement, supported by bullish CHoCH (Change of Character) patterns and stabilizing RSI readings, has sparked speculation about a potential long-term bull run. Coupled with on-chain signals of short covering and institutional accumulation, the case for PENGU's momentum appears robust-but not without risks.

Technical Indicators Signal Growing Bullish Momentum

From a technical perspective, PENGU's price action suggests a critical inflection point. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have shown increasing buying pressure, with the RSI stabilizing above oversold levels and the MACD histogram expanding in the bullish territory. This aligns with a breakout above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.013, a key psychological threshold that, if sustained, could propel the token toward $0.020.

Historical price behavior further reinforces this narrative. The $0.0100–$0.0105 zone has long been a battleground for buyers and sellers, with repeated tests of this range failing to break decisively until now. Whale accumulation near $0.046-highlighted by a $273,000 purchase-suggests institutional confidence in PENGU's long-term potential. However, volatility remains a double-edged sword: a 33% daily volume spike and a 14.46% volatility rate underscore the token's susceptibility to sharp corrections if key support levels falter.

Open interest surged by $10.14 million, with a long/short ratio of 1.7 on platforms like OKX, indicating growing confidence among bullish traders. This surge reflects the market's growing consensus that PENGU is on the cusp of a major breakout.

On-Chain Data Reveals Short Squeeze Potential

On-chain metrics paint a compelling picture of short-term reversal dynamics. As of November 2025, PENGU's short interest stood at $7.68 million, reflecting widespread bearish sentiment. Yet, derivatives data tells a different story. Open interest surged by $10.14 million, with a long/short ratio of 1.7 on platforms like OKX, indicating growing confidence among bullish traders. Negative funding rates in late November further signaled short covering, as bearish traders closed positions to limit losses amid the 25% single-day rally.

This short covering was amplified by institutional inflows. A $430,000 injection into PENGU by institutional players, coupled with liquidity clusters forming around $0.021–$0.024, created favorable conditions for a short squeeze. However, bearish indicators emerged in early December, including a hidden bearish divergence on the RSI and a 3.62% reduction in whale spot holdings. These shifts suggest that while short-term momentum is strong, bearish forces remain active and could challenge the rally.

Key Risks and the Path Forward

Despite the bullish technical and on-chain signals, PENGU faces critical hurdles. A failure to hold above $0.0100 could trigger a retest of the $0.00956 low, reigniting bearish sentiment. Additionally, the token's high volatility-exacerbated by a 30% single-day pullback in late November-highlights the fragility of its current momentum.

For a sustained bull run, PENGU must overcome these challenges. A sustained break above $0.020 would validate the CHoCH patterns and Fibonacci levels as long-term support, while further institutional accumulation could cement its narrative. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.0185-where liquidity clusters previously formed-could signal exhaustion of bullish momentum.

Conclusion

PENGU's recent surge reflects a confluence of technical strength and on-chain dynamics that strongly suggest a reversal and potential short squeeze. While the path to $0.020 is plausible, investors must remain cautious of the token's volatility and the lingering bearish forces. For now, PENGU appears to be at a pivotal juncture-where a successful breakout could mark the start of a major bull run, or a failed attempt to reignite a prolonged downtrend.