Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) Market Overview

• PENDLEBTC formed consolidation near $3.86, with a late morning rally to $3.95 before retracing.
• Volume remained subdued early but spiked during the morning high, with turnover confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence during the retracement, hinting at potential short-term weakness.
• Price remained within Bollinger Band mid-range, suggesting low volatility and no clear breakout potential.
• Fibonacci levels suggest 61.8% retrace to $3.89 could offer near-term support as a key watchpoint.

The PENDLEBTC pair opened at $3.853 at 12:00 ET – 1 on 2025-10-04 and reached a high of $3.95 by 08:15 ET on 2025-10-05 before closing at $3.891 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading period saw total volume of 3,054.9 and notional turnover of $116.82. Price action featured a sharp early rally followed by a measured pullback, with volume activity confirming key price levels.

Structure & Formations

A clear consolidation pattern formed between $3.853 and $3.908 during the early session, with a bullish breakout attempt failing near $3.95. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 08:15–08:30 ET, followed by a doji at 09:00 ET, signaling indecision and potential short-term reversal. Support appears to be consolidating near $3.87–3.89, with resistance likely at $3.92–3.95 in the near term.

Price moved within tight Bollinger Bands

The asset remained within the Bollinger Band mid-range for much of the session, suggesting low volatility and no clear breakout signal. A slight expansion in the bands occurred during the rally to $3.95, with price closing near the 20-period MA. No significant overextension was observed, though the retracement to $3.888 saw price touch the lower band, indicating potential short-term support.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed during the morning rally, forming a bullish crossover that supported the high at $3.95. However, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.89 offered immediate support as the price pulled back after the peak. The 38.2% retracement at $3.91 appears to have failed as resistance, indicating stronger bearish pressure than initially expected.

MACD and RSI signal mixed momentum

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 03:15 ET and remained in positive territory through the high, confirming the initial bullish move. However, RSI peaked at 62 and then declined into the 40–50 range during the retracement, suggesting overbought conditions earlier than expected and weakening momentum. A bearish divergence between price and RSI at the peak suggests the retracement could extend further.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20/50 crossover on the 15-minute chart to enter long positions during confirmed bullish breaks above key resistance levels, such as $3.92–3.95. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 61.8% retracement level at $3.89 to manage risk, with a target exit at the 38.2% level at $3.91 if the short-term bearish pressure holds. This approach would align with the observed MACD and RSI divergence, suggesting a possible short-term reversal after the peak.