PayPal Earnings Expectations: Options Sentiment Mixed Amid Neutral Upgrade

PayPal (PYPL) shares are up 1.36% near $73.96. Options volume is roughly in line with average, with calls leading puts for a put/call ratio of 0.24. Implied volatility dropped 0.61 near 42.88, suggesting an expected daily move of $2.00. Put-call skew flattened, indicating a modestly bullish tone following an upgrade to Neutral at Seaport Research. Option markets are pricing in a 50% probability of a move greater than 8.04% or $5.95.

PayPal (PYPL) shares are up 1.36% near $73.96 following a recent upgrade to a Neutral rating from Seaport Research. The upgrade comes amidst a volatile market environment influenced by broader economic factors, including President Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports [2].

The upgrade reflects a more balanced outlook on PayPal's performance. Despite concerns about potential tariff impacts, the company's strong earnings and innovations have offset these challenges. PayPal reported an 8% growth in transaction margin, a 23% increase in non-GAAP earnings per share, and a 20% revenue growth for Venmo in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. Additionally, PayPal expanded its offerings with innovations like a dynamic smart wallet and agentic commerce, positioning itself as a strategic commerce partner for merchants [3].

Options volume for PayPal is roughly in line with average, with calls leading puts for a put/call ratio of 0.24. Implied volatility dropped 0.61 near 42.88, suggesting an expected daily move of $2.00. The put-call skew flattened, indicating a modestly bullish tone following the upgrade [1].

The market capitalization of PayPal stands at approximately $69.4 billion, with a trading volume of 21,877,721 shares on the NASDAQ exchange [2]. The upgrade also follows PayPal's strong earnings report for the first quarter of 2025, with the company maintaining its full-year guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainties and potential impacts from geopolitical factors [3].

Institutional investors and hedge funds have shown increased interest in PayPal. New York State Common Retirement Fund raised its holdings by 4.5% in the first quarter, while other institutional investors like Norges Bank and Capital Research Global Investors also boosted their positions [4]. Insiders at PayPal have been active in the market as well, with Suzan Kereere and EVP Diego Scotti selling shares in June 2025 [4].

The consensus brokerage recommendation is currently "Outperform," indicating a positive outlook from 45 brokerage firms [3]. The average target price set by 36 analysts is $81.16, implying an upside of 13.73% from the current price [2].

References:
[1] https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/PYPL/options
[2] https://www.tradingnews.com/news/paypal-nasdaq-pypl-stock-signals-30-percent-upside
[3] https://www.ainvest.com/news/paypal-upgraded-neutral-sell-seaport-research-2507-86/