PAXGBTC Market Overview: November 1, 2025

• PAXGBTC opened at 0.03642, reached a high of 0.03669, and closed at 0.03641 after a 24-hour session.
• Price fluctuated within a tight range, with intraday volatility narrowing as time progressed.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early evening session, indicating potential downward pressure.
• Volume saw a sharp increase during the 18:30–19:30 ET session, but price failed to break decisively lower.
• RSI hovered near 50, suggesting a lack of strong directional momentum and potential for consolidation.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03642 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 0.03641 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.03669 and a low of 0.03618. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was 117.96 units, while turnover reached $3.48 million. The price action showed a bearish bias, with key resistance at 0.03669 and support at 0.03633, where a notable bounce occurred.

The structure of the candlesticks over the day revealed a lack of conviction in either direction. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 18:30 ET, with a large body forming after a prior small bullish candle, suggesting a potential reversal. However, volume on that candle was only 0.7447, which may imply that the move lacked sufficient participation to confirm a strong bearish trend. Later in the evening, price tested the 0.03633 level twice, both times finding support.

Key Technical Levels and Patterns

The 0.03669 level acted as a key resistance, with price failing to break above it despite a couple of attempts. The 0.03633 level, however, appeared to hold as strong support, with multiple bounces observed. A doji formed at 00:15 ET, signaling indecision and a potential pause in momentum. The bearish engulfing pattern at 18:30 ET was one of the most notable formations, though it was not followed by a confirming close below the pattern's low. This pattern could be revisited in the coming sessions for potential shorting opportunities if the trend persists.

Moving Averages and Volatility

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained closely aligned near 0.0364–0.0365, with no clear separation indicating a strong trend. Bollinger Bands showed a gradual narrowing in the final hours of the session, suggesting a potential period of consolidation ahead. Price remained within the bands for most of the session, staying closer to the lower band during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Momentum and Reversals

The RSI remained in neutral territory around 50 for much of the session, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction. However, the MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early hours, followed by a brief bullish divergence later in the night. This mixed signal suggests that while the market is hesitant to trend, a breakout could still be imminent if one of the key levels (support or resistance) is decisively breached.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the 18:30–19:30 ET session, reaching a peak of 2.3912 units, yet price failed to follow through with a convincing bearish move. This could indicate a false breakout or a test of the key support level. Notional turnover mirrored the volume behavior, peaking during the same period. A divergence between price and volume was observed in the early morning, with declining volume even as price made a minor dip. This could suggest that the downward move lacked conviction and may reverse.

Fibonacci Retracements and Projection

Applying Fibonacci to the most recent swing from the intraday low of 0.03618 to the high of 0.03669, the 38.2% retracement level is at 0.03646 and the 61.8% at 0.03638. These levels coincided with the late-night price consolidation and may act as potential reversal or continuation points. A break above 0.03669 would suggest a test of the 0.03676 Fibonacci extension, while a move below 0.03633 could trigger a retest of the 0.0362–0.03618 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a bearish engulfing pattern at 18:30 ET and the failure of price to confirm the break below the pattern's low, a backtest strategy could be built around identifying and shorting such patterns when followed by a volume confirmation. A bearish engulfing pattern typically signals a potential reversal and is stronger when it occurs at or near a key resistance level. If the pattern forms with rising volume and is followed by a candle that closes below the pattern’s low, this could be a strong signal to short PAXGBTC. A fixed holding period or a stop-loss at the pattern’s high would be ideal for risk management.