PAX Gold/Bitcoin Market Overview

Summary
• PAXGBTC traded in a 0.0371–0.0387 range, with 0.0374–0.0376 as key short-term support/resistance.
• Volatility increased after 06:00 ET as price surged above the 20-period MA.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions during the early morning rally, suggesting potential pullback.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03748 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0382 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 0.03874, and the low was 0.03710. Total volume amounted to 222.67 units, and notional turnover was $8.44 (based on closing price).

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a bullish reversal pattern forming after a consolidation phase between 0.0371 and 0.0376. A key breakout occurred after 06:00 ET, where the price surged past the 20-period moving average. This was confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern in the early morning session, which may indicate a short-term reversal from bearish to bullish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.0375) was crossed to the upside during the 06:00–08:00 ET window, while the 50-period MA lagged behind. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (not visible in this 24-hour window) would be a more relevant level for longer-term positioning.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive and crossed above zero around 06:00 ET, confirming the bullish momentum shift. RSI reached overbought territory (70+) in the early hours of the morning, which suggests that a correction or consolidation may be likely in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a tightening range before the 06:00 ET breakout, indicating a potential breakout or breakdown. After the breakout, price moved above the upper band, signaling a sharp increase in volatility and bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout between 06:00 and 08:00 ET, with a peak of 16.29 units at 06:00 ET. Notional turnover also increased during this time, aligning with price action and confirming the strength of the bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.0371–0.0387 swing, key levels to watch include 0.0376 (38.2%), 0.0379 (50%), and 0.0382 (61.8%). The 61.8% level coincides with the current close, which may act as a strong support if the price pulls back.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of a Bullish Engulfing pattern on a 1-day holding period could provide insight into the reliability of this formation in the PAXGBTC context. Given the high volume and confirmed breakout seen on this day, a strategy that triggers buy signals on engulfing patterns followed by a 1-day hold may have significant potential if validated over historical data. However, the recent overbought RSI and strong Fibonacci levels suggest incorporating stop-loss or trailing stop mechanisms to mitigate downside risks in case of a reversal.