PAX Gold/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-09-11

• PAXGBTC broke below 0.03200 on strong volume late ET, signaling bearish momentum.
• Price consolidated near 0.03175 overnight, with RSI suggesting oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded post-ET, with a key support level forming around 0.03165–0.03175.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the early morning selloff, confirming a trend shift.
• Fibonacci retracement suggests potential bounce from 61.8% at ~0.03176.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03203 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.03217, and a low of 0.03162, closing at 0.03173 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 116.53 BTC equivalents, and notional turnover amounted to $3,733.31 (assuming $64,500 BTC price).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern showed a distinct bearish bias, with price failing to retest the 0.03205–0.03210 resistance cluster after an initial attempt post-ET. The most notable bearish pattern formed around 19:30–20:00 ET, where a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed a shift in sentiment. Later, in the overnight session, a cluster of tight-range candles around 0.03175 suggested accumulation or consolidation. A key support zone emerged between 0.03172 and 0.03166, with multiple candles testing the level. A potential bullish reversal may be in play if the price holds above 0.03175 and forms a morning star or hammer pattern.

Moving Averages & Momentum

Short-term moving averages (20 and 50-period) on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price action around 18:00–19:00 ET, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sat above 0.03200, but the 200-period SMA remained as a key resistance. The RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 during the overnight selloff, indicating potential for a short-term rebound. Meanwhile, the MACD showed bearish divergence, with the histogram shrinking slightly as price continued lower.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility spiked between 16:00–19:00 ET, with price breaking the upper Bollinger Band on a few occasions, confirming short-term bullish attempts. However, from 20:00 ET onward, the bands widened significantly as the price fell sharply, suggesting a bearish breakout. By overnight, the price was trading near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a potential bounce or consolidation. A retest of the 0.03175–0.03166 range will likely dictate whether the price finds a floor or continues lower.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the initial bearish move from 17:30–19:30 ET, with a 15-minute candle at 17:30 showing 151.49 BTC volume. This coincided with a sharp drop in price, confirming bearish momentum. However, after 22:00 ET, volume dwindled as the price moved lower, suggesting weakening conviction. Overnight, volume remained low, despite continued price movement, hinting at a potential distribution phase. Notional turnover mirrored volume activity, with the largest spikes aligning with the major price moves, indicating consistent participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 15-minute swing from 0.03217 (high at 18:30) to 0.03162 (low at 04:00), the 61.8% level sits at approximately 0.03176. This level has been tested multiple times, suggesting it could act as a short-term support. On the daily chart, retracement of the broader move suggests key levels at 0.03180 (38.2%) and 0.03195 (61.8%), which could become resistance if the price starts to recover.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish engulfing pattern and the subsequent consolidation near 0.03175, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry on a close below the 0.03175 level, with a stop above 0.03183 and a target at 0.03160 (next Fibonacci level). This aligns with the RSI showing oversold conditions and the MACD indicating bearish momentum. The strategy could also incorporate a dynamic trailing stop as the price consolidates, aiming to capture a medium-term downtrend while minimizing risk exposure.