Paccar Rises 3.14% to $101.76 as Bullish Momentum Strengthens on Technical Breakout

Paccar (PCAR) closed at $101.76 in the latest session, gaining 3.14% to mark its second consecutive day of advances. Over this two-day rally, shares have risen 4.34% on increasing volume, suggesting strengthening bullish momentum.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns indicate a bullish reversal confirmation. The September 4th session formed a Hammer at $98.21 (low: $95.81), signaling exhaustion of the prior downtrend. This was followed by a Bullish Engulfing pattern on September 10th-11th, with the latter’s long green body ($98.59–$102.11) closing near the high. Key resistance is evident near the $104–$105 zone (March 2025 peak), while support solidifies around $96–$97, aligning with the August swing low.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($98.40) crossed above the 100-day MA ($97.80) in late August, reinforcing a bullish medium-term structure. The 200-day MA ($95.75) maintains a positive slope, confirming the long-term uptrend. Current price ($101.76) trades above all three averages, with the recent pullback to $96.22 in early September rebounding precisely off the rising 100-day MA—demonstrating robust dynamic support.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover as the signal line converges toward the MACD line after a period of consolidation. This aligns with KDJ values (K: 78, D: 72, J: 90), which exited oversold territory in early September and now approach overbought conditions. While the KDJ’s J-line above 90 flags short-term exuberance, the MACD’s upward momentum suggests room for continuation before a reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted sharply in late August (width: ~$2.50), preceding the current expansion phase as volatility returned. Price breached the upper band ($101.50) on September 11th, typically indicating overextension. However, this occurred alongside rising volume—a sign of conviction that may delay mean reversion. The midline ($98.40) now acts as support.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surges validated key rallies: the July 22nd breakout (+6.10% on 7.15M shares) and the September 11th advance (+3.14% on 2.67M shares, highest in three weeks). Conversely, pullbacks (e.g., September 3rd’s -2.67%) saw below-average volume, indicating limited selling pressure. The current uptrend is bolstered by two consecutive volume expansions, enhancing its sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (current: 67) rebounded from oversold (<30) in late August and now approaches overbought territory (>70). While not yet at extreme levels, its ascent alongside price lacks divergence, suggesting trend strength remains intact. Traders should monitor for RSI values exceeding 70, which could signal overheating.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the 2025 swing low ($85.05 on April 15th) and high ($115.43 on March 10th), key retracement levels align with recent price action. The 61.8% retracement ($96.60) anchored the August-September consolidation, with the 50% level ($100.24) briefly acting as resistance. The current rally has surpassed the 38.2% resistance ($103.50), potentially targeting the 23.6% level ($107.20).
Confluence and Divergence Observations
A significant confluence exists at $96–$97, where the 100-day MA, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, and volume-supported support converge. Conversely, RSI and Bollinger Bands show slight tension: RSI approaches overbought while price touches the upper band. However, bullish volume and MACD/KDJ alignment suggest this may resolve through consolidation rather than reversal. Divergence remains absent across oscillators, reinforcing trend integrity for Paccar’s ongoing recovery phase.