Paccar (PCAR) Surges 4.06% as MACD Crossover and Fibonacci Levels Fuel Bullish Bias Amid Overbought RSI

Paccar (PCAR) closed the most recent session with a 4.06% increase, reaching $101.50. This sharp move suggests a potential short-term bullish momentum, but its sustainability will depend on alignment with broader technical indicators. The price has oscillated between key support ($96.25) and resistance ($102.95) levels over the past year, with recent volatility clustering around the $98–$101 range. A breakout above $102.95 or a retest of the $96.25 support could signal trend continuation or reversal, respectively.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action includes a bullish engulfing pattern on August 22, where the candle closed near its high ($102.95) after prior bearish consolidation. This suggests strong buying pressure. Key support levels at $98.27 and $96.25 are reinforced by previous price stalls, while resistance is at $100.45 and $102.95. A potential bearish divergence appears in the RSI (discussed later) if the price fails to surpass $102.95 despite rising RSI, indicating waning momentum.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (calculated to ~$99.30) is above the 200-day MA (~$97.60), forming a golden cross and confirming a medium-term uptrend. The 100-day MA (~$98.70) aligns with the recent consolidation zone. The current price ($101.50) is above all three MAs, reinforcing bullish bias. However, the 200-day MA could act as a dynamic support if the price retraces below $99.30, potentially triggering a pullback.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram shows narrowing bearish divergence as of August 22, with the line crossing above the signal line, suggesting a bullish crossover. The KDJ stochastic oscillator indicates overbought conditions (K=82, D=78), aligning with the recent 4.06% surge. This implies a potential short-term correction, though the MACD’s positive momentum may delay reversal signals. A close below the 50-day MA ($99.30) could trigger a bearish KDJ crossover.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the price touching the upper Bollinger Band ($102.95) on August 22. The 20-day standard deviation is ~$1.50, indicating heightened volatility. If the price consolidates within the bands (current mid-band ~$99.80), it may signal a continuation of the uptrend. A breakout above the upper band or below the lower band ($96.25) could confirm a trend reversal.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked to 3.35 million on August 22, the highest in over a month, validating the recent price surge. However, volume declined to 1.41 million on August 21 despite a 0.65% decline, suggesting weak bearish conviction. A sustainable bullish move would require sustained volume above 2.5 million, whereas declining volume during rallies may indicate distribution.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI reached ~70 on August 22, entering overbought territory. This suggests a potential pullback, though the RSI has historically remained within 30–70 bounds without sharp divergences. A close below 60 would signal weakening momentum, while a break above 75 may indicate a stronger uptrend. Caution is advised given the RSI’s frequent overbought readings in recent months.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels between the January 2025 high ($112.65) and May 2025 low ($90.48) include 61.8% at ~$97.80 and 50% at ~$101.56. The current price ($101.50) is near the 50% retracement level, acting as a potential pivot zone. A break above $101.56 could target the 38.2% level (~$104.30), while a drop below $97.80 may test the 61.8% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy, which buys PCAR when RSI falls below 30 and sells when it exceeds 70, yielded a 27.63% return from 2022 to 2025 but underperformed the benchmark by 5.36%. While the RSI-based approach showed moderate success, the low maximum drawdown (0.00%) and Sharpe ratio of 0.80 suggest limited risk-adjusted gains. This aligns with the current overbought RSI reading (~70), where the strategy would trigger a sell signal. However, the MACD’s bullish crossover and Fibonacci levels near $101.56 imply potential for further gains, creating a confluence of conflicting signals. Traders may need to incorporate additional filters (e.g., volume confirmation or Bollinger Band breakouts) to refine entry/exit points.