Mercados sobrevalorados y los riesgos derivados de no cumplir con las expectativas de ganancias: Una recomendación para adoptar posiciones defensivas en mercados en etapas tardías del ciclo económico

The S&P 500's Q4 2025 earnings season has been a study in contrasts. While the index is projected to report year-over-year earnings growth of 8.3% and revenue growth of 7.7%-marking the 10th consecutive quarter of positive earnings growth- its valuation metrics tell a different story. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 21.8, exceeding both 5-year and 10-year averages. Meanwhile, the P/E10 ratio, a long-term valuation benchmark, has surged to 39.8, a level not seen since the 2000 dot-com bubble. These figures underscore a market increasingly reliant on optimistic earnings forecasts rather than current fundamentals, creating a precarious environment where unmet expectations could trigger sharp volatility.

Earnings Growth: A Sector-Driven Mirage

The Information Technology sector has been the primary engine of growth, with earnings and revenue expected to rise by 25.7% and 17.9%. Companies like NVIDIA, whose earnings are projected to jump 69% year-over-year, have fueled this optimism. However, this concentration of strength in a narrow set of stocks-particularly those tied to speculative themes like artificial intelligence-raises questions about the sustainability of broader market gains. As Goldman Sachs has warned, the S&P 500's valuation expansion accounts for one-third of its recent performance, despite slowing earnings growth. If the sector's momentum falters, the market's reliance on a handful of high-flying names could amplify downside risks.

The Overvaluation Dilemma

The current valuation landscape bears unsettling parallels to historical bubbles. The forward P/E of 22x is reminiscent of the 2021 post-pandemic rally and dangerously close to the 2000 dot-com peak. This overvaluation is compounded by a trailing 12-month P/E of 28.3, which further stretches the gap between price and earnings. While the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in September 2025 have provided a temporary tailwind for equities and bonds, they also introduce uncertainty about future economic resilience. A labor market showing signs of weakness and geopolitical tensions loom as potential catalysts for a correction.

Defensive Positioning: A Prudent Counterbalance

In such an environment, defensive strategies become critical. High-quality U.S. Treasury bonds, for instance, have historically served as a safe haven during market stress, offering a hedge against equity losses. Similarly, dividend-paying stocks with strong balance sheets- such as those in the utilities or consumer staples sectors-can provide stability in a downturn. Dollar-cost averaging, a technique that mitigates the impact of volatility by spreading investments over time, also gains relevance in a market prone to sharp swings.

Alternative investments, including private credit and infrastructure, are gaining traction as tools for diversification. These assets offer uncorrelated returns and can preserve capital while capturing growth in a shifting macroeconomic landscape. Hedge funds, too, have shown resilience in 2025's volatile regime, generating alpha through strategies like long/short equity and market-neutral approaches.

Lessons from History: The Dot-Com Bubble and 2007 Crisis

Historical precedents reinforce the importance of defensive positioning. During the 2000 dot-com crash, long-term U.S. Treasuries delivered an annualized return of 11.8% between 2000 and 2002, outperforming equities and preserving capital. Investors who ignored fundamentals and overexposed themselves to speculative tech stocks faced steep losses, while those who prioritized capital preservation and hedged against downside risk fared better. Similarly, during the 2007 pre-financial crisis period, disciplined strategies focused on valuation metrics like P/E and P/S ratios proved more effective than chasing growth narratives.

Preparing for Volatility: A Strategic Framework

For investors navigating Q4 2025's late-cycle dynamics, a multi-pronged approach is essential. First, portfolios should be diversified across asset classes, with intentional allocations to bonds, defensive equities, and alternatives. Second, strategic rebalancing-particularly after periods of strong equity gains-can help manage risk and tax impacts. Third, maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial. As the dot-com bubble demonstrated, surviving companies like Amazon and eBay eventually outperformed after corrections, rewarding patient investors.

Conclusion

The S&P 500's current trajectory is a double-edged sword: robust earnings growth in key sectors masks a valuation structure that is increasingly fragile. While the market's optimism is understandable, it is not without risks. Defensive positioning and volatility preparedness are no longer optional-they are imperative for preserving capital and navigating potential turbulence. As the Federal Reserve's policy path remains uncertain and economic signals mixed, investors must anchor their strategies in fundamentals, diversification, and historical lessons. In a market where expectations are sky-high, prudence may be the most valuable asset of all.