Los stocks de energía sobrecomprados enfrentan riesgos de corrección en el corto plazo

The energy sector, long a barometer of macroeconomic health, has entered a precarious phase in late 2025. While recent gains have been fueled by speculative fervor and sector-specific tailwinds, momentum-based technical indicators and earnings-driven volatility now suggest a looming correction. Investors must scrutinize overbought conditions in key energy stocks, where divergences in tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signal waning bullish momentum.

The Overbought Trap: RSI and MACD Signals

As of November 2025, several energy stocks trade with RSI values above 70, a threshold traditionally signaling overbought conditions. For instance, NACCO Industries Inc. (NC) hit an RSI of 82.3 on November 13, 2025, a level that historically precedes price corrections. The RSI's overbought status reflects excessive buying pressure, often driven by short-term traders and algorithmic strategies, which can exhaust demand and trigger profit-taking.

The MACD, a complementary momentum gauge, further underscores risks. NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL), for example, reported a MACD of -0.013 in November 2025, with its histogram turning negative on November 24, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Such divergence-where price trends and MACD signals contradict-often foreshadows reversals. Energy stocks with these dual indicators face heightened vulnerability, particularly as broader market sentiment turns risk-averse.

Earnings-Driven Volatility: A Double-Edged Sword

Recent earnings reports have amplified volatility in energy stocks, compounding technical risks. NGL Energy Partners, despite reporting a 12% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $167.3 million, saw its MACD signal deteriorate. This disconnect highlights the sector's fragility: even positive fundamentals struggle to offset technical headwinds. Similarly, NACCO Industries' third-quarter 2025 results-showing a 24% revenue jump to $76.6 million-failed to sustain its overbought RSI, as operating profits fell short of prior-year levels.

External factors exacerbate this volatility. WTI crude oil prices, which have declined for four consecutive months, now trade near four-year lows. While this benefits consumers, it pressures energy producers' margins, creating a tug-of-war between technical overbought conditions and deteriorating cost structures.

Broader Market Context and Strategic Implications

The energy sector's relative resilience-evidenced by a 0.90% gain in the S&P 500 Energy index during the week of November 7-contrasts with broader market jitters. However, this strength appears increasingly decoupled from fundamentals. For example, Quanex (NX), a materials company, received a bullish MACD signal in late November despite missing earnings estimates by $0.16 per share. Such anomalies underscore the sector's reliance on momentum-driven flows rather than intrinsic value.

Investors should prioritize risk management. Stocks like NGL and NC, with clear technical divergences and mixed earnings, warrant caution. Short-term traders might consider hedging with put options or reducing exposure to overbought names, while long-term investors should await clearer alignment between fundamentals and technicals.

Conclusion

The energy sector's current overbought conditions, as measured by RSI and MACD, signal a high probability of near-term corrections. While earnings reports occasionally provide temporary relief, they cannot override the structural weaknesses highlighted by technical indicators. As the market grapples with macroeconomic uncertainties-from interest rate hikes to oil price declines-energy stocks will likely face renewed selling pressure. Investors who heed these signals may avoid the pitfalls of crowded trades and position themselves for more sustainable opportunities.