The outlook for demand for the shingles and hepatitis B vaccines is unclear, and Goldman is bearish on DVAX.

Goldman downgraded Denbury (DVAX.US) from "Neutral" to "Sell" and reduced its target price to US$12 from US$15, citing uncertain demand for its shingles and hepatitis B vaccines. Goldman analyst Paul Choi said the increasing competition in the shingles vaccine market could lower the potential value of Denbury's Z-1018 project and increase the uncertainty of its long-term revenue. Denbury is conducting a Phase 1/2 trial to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of Z-1018 relative to Shingrix, a shingles vaccine developed by GSK (GSK.US). The trial is being conducted in 441 healthy adults aged 50-69. Choi also said the uncertain demand for repeat doses of the hepatitis B vaccine in the 2030s could affect the outlook for Heplisav-B. Last month, Denbury estimated that its net product revenue from Heplisav-B in 2024 would be US$268 million, up 26% year-on-year. Heplisav-B's net product revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024 reached US$71 million, up 39%. In May 2024, the FDA issued a complete response letter stating that the company had not provided enough data to fully evaluate the effectiveness or safety of the four-dose regimen of Heplisav-B. Denbury is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 20. The market expects its adjusted EPS to be US$0.04 and revenue to be US$72.92 million. Analysts expect revenue of US$278 million and adjusted EPS of US$0.12 in 2024. As of Tuesday's close of US stock trading, Denbury fell 3.79% to US$12.7.