Osmosis/USDC Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Downtrend with Bearish Confirmation

• Osmosis/USDC traded in a volatile range, with a sharp bearish reversal late in the session.• Price dropped from a high of $0.1238 to a low of $0.1144, breaking key support levels.• Volume surged during the decline, confirming bearish momentum and weak follow-through buying.• RSI entered oversold territory near the close, hinting at possible near-term bouncing.

Osmosis/USDC opened at $0.1194 on October 29 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.1238 before plunging to a session low of $0.1144. The pair closed at $0.1144 at 12:00 ET on October 30, down approximately 7.93% over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 128,115.54, with notional turnover reaching $14,780.68, highlighting a clear increase in selling pressure and order flow imbalance during the downtrend.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data revealed a bearish reversal pattern beginning around 19:00 ET on October 29, as the price formed a large bearish candle with a high of $0.122 and a low of $0.1185, closing near the low. This was followed by a continuation of bearish momentum with a sharp drop into the early hours of October 30, where prices fell below $0.119 and remained in a downtrend until the session close. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 20:30 ET, which confirmed the shift in sentiment. Key support levels appeared to be at $0.1175 and $0.1165, while resistance remained untested in the upper range of $0.1185 to $0.1195.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish crossover by the mid-sessions of October 30. The 20SMA had dipped below the 50SMA, signaling a potential continuation of the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period SMAs were also in bearish alignment, with prices trading well below the 200SMA, reinforcing the long-term bearish bias for the pair.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover late on October 29, with the MACD line dropping below the signal line and remaining negative into the early hours of October 30. The histogram reflected increasing bearish momentum during the sharp decline. The RSI entered the oversold territory around $0.1144 at the session close, hovering near 28, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, though a sustained rebound would require strong bullish confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

The price moved within a wide Bollinger Band envelope for most of the session, indicating high volatility. A notable contraction occurred just before the sharp bearish move, followed by a rapid expansion as prices fell. By the close, the price was trading near the lower band, suggesting a strong bearish phase, though a retest of the upper band could trigger a short-term rally if bullish volume follows.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume spikes coincided with the sharp bearish moves around 19:00–20:00 ET and again during the early morning hours on October 30. Total notional turnover increased significantly during this period, confirming the strength of the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, suggesting the sell-off was supported by strong order flow, rather than a capitulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the key swing high of $0.1238 and swing low of $0.1144, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.1195, and the 61.8% level is at $0.1176. These levels appear to have acted as resistance and support during the session. The price appears to have found a short-term bottom near the 61.8% level and may attempt to test the 38.2% level for a potential bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of clear bearish reversal patterns and confirmed momentum signals from the MACD and RSI, a backtest strategy based on the Bearish-Engulfing pattern could offer valuable insights for Osmosis/USDC. The pattern typically signals a shift in trend when a bearish candle fully engulfs the preceding bullish candle. A backtest would involve entering a short position immediately after the pattern is confirmed and holding the trade for up to three days. This strategy could be used to assess the pair’s susceptibility to bearish continuation following bearish reversal signals. However, due to the unavailability of the correct ticker symbol for Osmosis/USDC in the asset database, the backtest cannot be executed automatically. Please confirm the correct ticker (e.g., OSMOUSDC.BINANCE) or a suitable proxy (e.g., OSMOUSD) to proceed.