Oracle (ORCL) Options Signal $220 Support Battle: Bull Call Spread vs Bear Put Playbook

• Oracle’s stock surges 3.9% intraday to $226.08 amid a 25% monthly slump
• Options data shows 6956 open calls at $240 and 9339 puts at $220 ahead of Friday’s expiry
• RSI at 11.14 and Bollinger Bands hint at potential bounce from $217.55 support

Here’s the thing: Oracle’s options market is locked in a tug-of-war between bulls eyeing a rebound and bears bracing for a breakdown. With the stock trading near its 200-day moving average ($209.20) and a put/call ratio of 0.86 favoring calls, the data screams "high conviction on both sides". Let’s break down what this means for your trading desk.

The $240 Call Wall and $220 Put Floor: A Volatility Playbook

Look at the options chain for Friday’s expiry: 6956 open calls at $240 (a 7.5% strike above current price) and 5370 puts at $215 (a 6% downside buffer). For next Friday, the $350 call (59% OTM) has 11,094 open contracts—triple the nearest put volume. This isn’t just noise: it’s a bullish positioning by institutional players betting on a rebound.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $220 strike has 9339 open puts for next Friday, suggesting smart money is hedging a breakdown below the 200D MA. The key takeaway? The market is pricing in a $215–$240 trading range over the next two weeks, with heavy liquidity at both ends. If ORCL breaks above $240, the call wall could trigger a short-covering rally. A drop below $220, though, might accelerate selling into the $210–$217.55 support cluster.

News Flow: Debt Woes vs Cloud Hype

Oracle’s story is a classic tug-of-war between growth optimism and profitability skepticism. On one hand, the stock’s 47% YTD surge reflects confidence in its $30B AI CAPEX plan and 5G partnerships. On the other, Q2 earnings misses, 14% cloud margins, and $38B in debt-funded expansion have investors spooked.

Here’s the rub: The options data mirrors this duality. Heavy call buying at $240–$350 aligns with bullish headlines about $455B in RPO and OpenAI partnerships. But the put-heavy positioning at $210–$220 reflects fears of a margin squeeze and short-seller pressure (hello, Michael Burry). The real question? Can Oracle’s cloud growth offset its debt load before Q4 earnings?

Actionable Trade Ideas: Call Spreads and Put Floors

For options traders: Buy the $220–$240 bull call spread (expiring Friday). Pay $X for the $220 call and sell the $240 call to cap risk. Why? The stock’s 3.9% intraday pop suggests short-term momentum could test the $240 wall. If it breaks through, the spread could net 15–20% in 5 days.

For downside protection: Buy the $220 put (next Friday expiry) at $X. With the 200D MA ($209.20) and lower Bollinger Band ($217.55) forming a support cluster, this strike gives you a 6% cushion if the stock cracks below $217.55.

Stock traders: Consider a swing trade at $217.55 (lower Bollinger Band). If ORCL holds here, target $230–$240. But if it breaks below $210 (next put-heavy zone), tighten stops and consider shorting the $210–$220 range.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch

Oracle’s next 2–3 weeks will test its AI growth narrative. Key catalysts:

• Q3 earnings (October 2025): Will cloud revenue hit $18B as guided?
• Debt market reaction: Can Oracle refinance its $38B AI debt at favorable rates?
• OpenAI partnership progress: Will the Wisconsin data center break ground on schedule?

The options market is already pricing in a $215–$240 range for now. But if earnings disappoint or debt costs rise, the $210–$217.55 support could collapse. Stay nimble—this stock’s direction hinges on execution, not just ambition.