Oracle (ORCL) Options Signal $200 Bullish Battle – Here’s How to Play the Cloud Infrastructure Rebound

• Oracle trades at $198.89, up 0.7% from open, with a 看涨吞没 candlestick pattern suggesting short-term bullish momentum.
• Options market shows heavy call open interest at the $200 strike (15,143 contracts) and extreme put skew at $150 (16,401 OI for next Friday).
• Technicals: RSI at 40.19 hints oversold conditions, while Bollinger Bands show price is 9.4% below the middle band, indicating potential rebound.

The options data and technicals are painting a clear picture: traders are pricing in a near-term battle for $200, with Oracle’s cloud infrastructure bets either catalyzing a rebound or exposing deeper structural risks.Bullish Pressure at $200 vs. Bearish Anchors at $150

The options market is split. Call open interest peaks at the $200 strike (15,143 contracts this Friday, 6,851 next Friday), suggesting institutional players are hedging or speculating on a breakout above this level. That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence in Oracle’s ability to stabilize its stock after a 30% Q4 drop. But the puts tell a different story: the $150 strike has 16,401 open interest for next Friday, nearly double the next largest put. That’s a red flag. Think of it like a tug-of-war: bulls are betting on a rebound, but bears are bracing for a $150 collapse if Oracle’s $50B capital expenditure plan backfires. No block trades to skew the data—this is pure crowd sentiment.

Cloud Infrastructure Hype vs. Financial Realities

Oracle’s news cycle is a mixed bag. On one hand, Q2 2026 showed 68% cloud revenue growth and a $523B RPO pile—numbers that scream "AI darling." On the other hand, free cash flow turned negative, and analysts are questioning if OpenAI’s $300B contract is a lifeline or a debt trap. Here’s the rub: investors love the vision of Stargate and Zettascale10, but they’re terrified of the execution risk. The options data mirrors this tension. The $200 calls reflect hope in Oracle’s AI pivot, while the $150 puts price in a worst-case scenario where debt loads and delayed data centers force a fire sale. Retail traders might be buying calls for the cloud dream, but big money is hedging with puts.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Rebound, Puts for the Floor

For options traders, the most compelling setup is the ORCL20260102C200 call (expiring next Friday). Why? The $200 strike is a psychological hurdle—break above it, and Oracle could reclaim its 200D MA at $214.27. If you’re bearish but cautious, the ORCL20260102P150 put offers downside protection. It’s cheap relative to the $190–$197.87 support zone but covers the worst-case $150 scenario. For stock traders, consider a bull call spread: buy ORCL at $198.89 with a stop near $196.90 (30D support) and target $205 if the $200 level holds. A tighter alternative: go long near $197.50 with a $195 stop, capitalizing on the 0.7% intraday bounce.

Volatility on the Horizon: Cloud or Crumble?

Oracle’s next 10 days will test its AI ambitions. The options market is pricing in a 70% probability of staying above $150 (put/call ratio at 0.89), but the $200 strike is the real inflection point. If Oracle’s cloud revenue momentum outpaces its debt worries, the $200–$220 calls could ignite. If not, the $150–$180 puts will dominate. Either way, this is a stock at a crossroads—and the options data is giving us a front-row seat to the drama.