Oracle (ORCL) Options Signal $150 Put Contingency as $200 Call OI Surges: Here’s How to Play the AI Debt Drama

• Oracle’s stock slumped 1.8% to $194.76, trading below its 30D and 200D moving averages.
• Options market shows 14,416 open contracts at the $200 call (Dec 26 expiry) and 7,442 puts at $172.5, hinting at a bullish/risk-off tug-of-war.
• A TikTok deal boosted shares 3.1% on Dec 23, but $111B in debt and $50B annual CapEx remain elephants in the room.

The options market is whispering two stories: one about a cautious bullish bet on a rebound, and another about a looming debt-driven selloff. Let’s break it down.

The $200 Call OI vs. $150 Put Shadow

Options data tells us traders are hedging both ways. For this Friday’s expiry, the ORCL20251226C200 call has the highest open interest (14,416 contracts), suggesting some hope for a rebound above current levels. But don’t ignore the puts: the ORCL20251226P1725 (yes, $172.5) has 7,442 open contracts, and next Friday’s ORCL20260102P150 put dwarfs the field with 16,436 OI. That’s not just bearish—it’s a contingency plan for a catastrophic drop.

Why does this matter? The call OI at $200 implies traders are betting on a short-term bounce, possibly fueled by the TikTok deal. But the puts at $150 and $172.5 signal deep-seated fears about Oracle’s debt load and cash flow. If the stock cracks below $192 (intraday low), those puts could turn into a stampede.

News: AI Ambition vs. Liquidity Crisis

Oracle’s Q2 earnings painted a mixed picture: cloud revenue surged 66% to $4.1B, but a $50B annual CapEx plan and $111B debt load have investors spooked. The TikTok deal gave shares a temporary jolt, but analysts are still circling the debt-to-equity ratio like vultures.

Here’s the rub: the market loves Oracle’s AI infrastructure bets (131,000 GPU clusters, RDMA tech), but it’s terrified of the liquidity crunch. The options data mirrors this tension—bulls are nibbling at calls for a rebound, while bears are prepping for a $150 collapse.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

For the aggressive: Buy the ORCL20251226C200 calls if ORCL breaks above today’s intraday high of $197.17. A close above $198 could trigger a short-term bounce toward $202 (30D support/resistance level). Target: 15–20% if the stock holds above $193.

For the cautious: Buy the ORCL20260102P150 puts as insurance. With 16,436 OI, this strike is a magnet for panic. If Oracle’s debt worries escalate (watch for a drop below $189), these puts could run.

Stock play: Consider a long entry near $193 (just above the intraday low) with a tight stop below $189. If it holds, target $202 (30D support) and $208 (200D average). But if it breaks $189, exit immediately—this stock isn’t in a long-term bullish trend.

Volatility on the Horizon

Oracle’s story is a tightrope walk between AI growth and debt disaster. The options market is pricing in a high-stakes game of chicken. If the TikTok deal gets regulatory green lights and OpenAI’s RPO converts to revenue, bulls could win. But if liquidity fears dominate, the $150 puts might not even be deep enough.

Bottom line: This is a stock with explosive potential on either side. Trade with a plan—and keep your stops tight. The next few weeks could make or break Oracle’s AI gamble.