Oracle: un grupo de potencia que se encuentra a un precio incorrecto y está listo para un fuerte regreso en 2026

In the shadow of a broader enterprise software sector grappling with undervaluation, Oracle (ORCL) stands out as a compelling case study in mispricing. Despite robust multiyear revenue visibility and disciplined investments in AI infrastructure, the stock trades at a discount to both historical averages and industry peers. This disconnect between fundamentals and market perception positions Oracle as a prime candidate for a significant rebound in 2026.

Valuation Metrics: A Tale of Contrasts

Oracle's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.21 as of December 2025 appears elevated compared to its 10-year average of 27.36 as reported, yet it lags behind peers like SAP (37.14) and Microsoft (32.92) according to market data. Meanwhile, the broader enterprise software sector trades at a P/E of 29.8x, a sharp decline from its 3-year average of 44.7x as noted. This suggests the sector is undervalued relative to its historical norms, with Oracle's valuation falling within this compressed range. Morningstar analysts note that software stocks like Adobe and ServiceNow are undervalued by 20–40%, but Oracle's disciplined capital allocation and cloud growth trajectory justify a higher multiple.

Cloud Revenue: A Decade of Resilience

Oracle's cloud business has been a consistent growth engine. Fiscal years 2023 and 2024 saw total revenue rise to $49.954 billion and $52.961 billion, respectively according to Macrotrends, with Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) leading the charge. In Q2 FY2026, OCI revenue surged 68% year-over-year to $4.1 billion, driven by demand for AI training and inference capabilities. The company's 2026 roadmap projects cloud revenue growth of 40–44% in Q3 alone, with a $18 billion target for fiscal 2026-a 77% increase from 2025 as reported. These figures underscore Oracle's ability to capitalize on AI-driven workloads, even as the sector faces near-term headwinds.

AI Infrastructure: Strategic Overhaul

Oracle's $50 billion capital expenditure plan for FY2026 according to Morningstar-a jump from $35 billion-highlights its commitment to AI infrastructure. The company has expanded GPU capacity by 50% quarter-over-quarter and added 400 megawatts of data center power according to analysts. Notably, Oracle is leveraging customer-provided chips and supplier lease models to align cash outflows with revenue inflows as observed, mitigating the strain of its $124 billion debt load as reported. These investments are paying off: multicloud partnerships with AWS, Azure, and GCP generated a 1,529% revenue surge in Q1 FY2025, while its AI data platform enables secure, multi-step reasoning across enterprise data according to reports.

Sector Context: Undervaluation Amid Disruption

The enterprise software sector's underperformance in 2025-spurred by fears of AI disrupting traditional models-has created a buying opportunity. As Morningstar's Dan Romanoff observes, software stocks remain attractive due to their high switching costs and free cash flow generation as noted. Oracle's position as a dual provider of infrastructure and enterprise applications gives it a unique edge. Its $144 billion OCI revenue target by 2030 according to Morningstar-implying 75% annualized growth-reflects confidence in its ability to outpace sector-wide challenges.

The 2026 Comeback: A Convergence of Factors

Oracle's 2026 resurgence hinges on three pillars:
1. Cloud Momentum: With $523 billion in remaining performance obligations as reported, the company has a clear revenue runway.
2. AI Adoption: Partnerships with hyperscalers and industry-specific cloud solutions (e.g., healthcare, hospitality) are unlocking new growth vectors as highlighted.
3. Valuation Re-rating: As AI infrastructure matures, Oracle's disciplined capital spending and debt management should justify a re-rating toward its 10-year P/E average.

Conclusion

Oracle's current valuation fails to reflect its strategic AI investments, cloud growth, and long-term revenue visibility. While the enterprise software sector remains undervalued, Oracle's unique position as a cloud infrastructure and application provider-coupled with its aggressive AI roadmap-positions it to outperform in 2026. For investors seeking a high-conviction play on the AI-driven cloud transition, Oracle offers a compelling case of mispricing and upside potential.