El futuro impulsado por IA de Oracle: ¿Es una apuesta de alto riesgo o es una compra estratégica?

Oracle's aggressive foray into artificial intelligence (AI) has positioned it as a key player in the tech industry's next frontier. However, its debt-fueled expansion has sparked intense debate among investors and analysts. With total debt -up from $92.6 billion in May 2025-Oracle's financial health is under scrutiny. This article evaluates whether Oracle's AI-driven strategy, despite its risks, offers a compelling long-term value proposition or if its mounting debt makes it a high-risk gamble.

The Debt-Fueled AI Expansion: A Double-Edged Sword

Oracle's AI ambitions are underpinned by a $18 billion jumbo bond sale in September 2025 and ongoing investments in AI data centers. project the company may raise $20–$30 billion annually in debt for the next three years to fund infrastructure demands. While this has driven , it has also pushed Oracle's debt-to-EBITDA ratio to levels , prompting negative credit outlooks from S&P Global and Moody's.

The company's reliance on OpenAI and its weaker cash flow compared to peers like AWS and Microsoft have further fueled investor concerns. , and to $35 billion in 2026. JPMorgan analysts have ", emphasizing the need for clearer leverage management to preserve its investment-grade rating.

Strategic Differentiation and Long-Term Growth Potential

Despite these risks, Oracle's AI strategy is built on a unique hybrid model that combines cloud infrastructure with enterprise software, creating high client retention through long-term contracts and switching costs. The company is embedding AI into its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure and Fusion Cloud Applications, democratizing access to predictive and generative AI for core business processes. This approach has attracted major clients like Kaiser Permanente and JPMorgan Chase, .

Oracle's competitive edge lies in its database-driven AI solutions, such as the , which offers self-tuning capabilities and reduces operational overhead. Unlike AWS's broad AI toolset or Microsoft's enterprise integration, Oracle's focus on sector-specific automation in healthcare and finance positions it to capture niche markets. Additionally, partnerships with Meta, Nvidia, and AMD underscore its ability to secure critical AI infrastructure.

Revenue Projections and Analyst Sentiment

Oracle's long-term revenue projections are ambitious. , with projected through 2030. By 2030, , according to analysts. Bank of America analysts highlight Oracle's 2030 targets of $225 billion in total revenue and $21 in earnings per share as exceeding Wall Street estimates.

However, these projections hinge on Oracle's ability to manage its debt burden. S&P and Moody's have flagged the company's rising leverage as a risk to its credit profile, while its stock price has declined amid concerns over AI data center delays. The challenge lies in balancing aggressive AI investments with financial discipline to avoid overextending its balance sheet.

Weighing the Risks and Rewards

Oracle's AI-driven strategy presents a paradox: a high-growth opportunity tempered by significant financial risks. On one hand, its hybrid business model, R&D investments, and sector-specific AI solutions . On the other, its debt load and reliance on external financing could strain its credit rating and shareholder returns if AI adoption falls short of expectations.

For investors, the decision to buy Oracle stock hinges on their risk tolerance. Those who believe in the long-term potential of AI-driven cloud infrastructure and Oracle's ability to execute its strategic roadmap may view the stock as a strategic buy, particularly given its undervaluation relative to peers like AWS and Microsoft according to market analysis. Conversely, those wary of its debt trajectory and execution risks may see it as a high-risk gamble.

Conclusion

Oracle's AI-driven future is a tale of two narratives: one of transformative growth and another of financial vulnerability. While its debt-fueled expansion raises red flags, the company's unique value proposition, robust RPO, and ambitious revenue projections suggest it is positioning itself to thrive in the AI era. However, success will depend on Oracle's ability to demonstrate disciplined leverage management and deliver on its AI promises. For now, the stock remains a high-stakes bet, appealing to investors who can tolerate volatility in pursuit of long-term gains.