Gasto de capital impulsado por IA de Oracle y sus implicaciones en el valor a largo plazo

Oracle's aggressive expansion into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure has positioned it as a key player in the tech sector's next frontier. However, the company's soaring capital expenditures and debt load have sparked critical questions about the sustainability of its financial strategy and its broader implications for the industry. As Oracle races to meet surging demand for AI computing power, investors and analysts are scrutinizing whether its debt-fueled growth model can deliver long-term value or if it risks becoming a cautionary tale of overleveraging.

Capital Expenditures and Debt Load: A Double-Edged Sword

Oracle's 2025 financial reports reveal a dramatic escalation in capital expenditures (CapEx), with the company raising its full-year forecast from $35 billion to $50 billion to fund AI infrastructure. This surge is driven by high-profile contracts with clients like Meta, Nvidia, and OpenAI, which require massive data center expansions. By November 2025, Oracle's lease commitments for cloud infrastructure had ballooned to $248 billion-a 148% increase since August 2025-spanning 15 to 19 years. These long-term obligations, coupled with $18 billion in new debt raised in September 2025, have pushed Oracle's total debt beyond $124 billion.

The company's Q2 fiscal 2026 results underscore the financial strain: CapEx hit $12 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $8.25 billion, while free cash flow turned negative by $10 billion. Oracle's reliance on debt and leases to fund AI infrastructure has raised red flags, with rating agencies warning that leverage could exceed 4x debt-to-EBITDA by 2027–2028, potentially triggering a downgrade to non-investment grade.

Revenue Projections and Debt Sustainability: A High-Stakes Gamble

Despite these risks, Oracle's management remains optimistic about its AI-driven growth. Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue is projected to reach $18 billion in fiscal 2026, a 77% year-on-year increase, with further acceleration expected in 2027. Bank of America analysts highlight Oracle's ambitious target of $166 billion in OCI revenue by 2030, implying a 75% compound annual growth rate. This growth is fueled by multi-billion-dollar contracts, including a 300 billion, five-year deal with OpenAI, which could account for nearly one-third of Oracle's revenue by 2028.

However, the sustainability of this growth hinges on Oracle's ability to convert these contracts into cash flow. The company's remaining performance obligations (RPO) have surged to $455 billion as of Q1 2026, but translating these into revenue will require maintaining high margins and managing operational costs. Critics argue that Oracle's debt load-projected to exceed $105 billion by 2027-could become a drag if AI demand slows or if key clients like OpenAI underperform. The stock has already fallen over 33% since its September high, reflecting investor concerns.

Ripple Effects on the Broader Tech Sector

Oracle's debt-driven AI expansion is emblematic of a broader trend in the tech sector. According to UBS, AI data center and project financing deals surged to $125 billion in 2025, up from $15 billion in 2024. This rapid debt issuance has raised alarms about systemic risks, particularly as opaque financing structures-such as private credit and off-balance sheet agreements-become more prevalent. For instance, private credit AI loans nearly doubled in early 2025, while asset-backed securities now back 63% of U.S. digital infrastructure ABS.

Industry analysts draw parallels to the dotcom bubble, warning that the migration of risk from equity to credit markets could amplify financial instability. Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital has highlighted the potential for a "balance-sheet time bomb" if AI demand fails to meet expectations. Meanwhile, Deloitte reports that 72% of power and data center executives view grid capacity as a "very" or "extremely challenging" barrier to scaling infrastructure. These challenges underscore the need for regulatory oversight and prudent financial planning to avoid a sector-wide correction.

Conclusion: Balancing Innovation and Prudence

Oracle's AI infrastructure investments represent a bold bet on the future of computing. If successful, the company could capture a dominant share of the AI-driven cloud market, with OCI revenue potentially surpassing $144 billion by 2030. However, the path to long-term value is fraught with risks. The company's heavy reliance on debt, coupled with its exposure to a single client (OpenAI), creates vulnerabilities that could undermine its financial stability.

For the broader tech sector, Oracle's trajectory serves as a bellwether. While AI's transformative potential is undeniable, the sector's debt-fueled expansion must be tempered by disciplined capital allocation and regulatory safeguards. Investors must weigh the rewards of AI innovation against the risks of overleveraging, recognizing that the sustainability of this growth will depend on both technological execution and financial prudence.