Oracle sube 7,7% por asociación con TikTok: ¿Es este el catalizador para recuperar el máximo en 52 semanas?

Summary
• Oracle (ORCL) rockets 7.7% intraday to $193.98, hitting a 12-month high of $195.12
• TikTok’s U.S. joint venture with Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX averts potential ban
• Previous 4.5% drop on Blue Owl deal collapse now overshadowed by bullish momentum
• Leveraged ETFs ORCU and ORCX surge 15.6% as retail traders bet on continuation

Oracle’s stock has erupted on news of its pivotal role in TikTok’s U.S. operations, reversing recent volatility tied to stalled infrastructure deals. With the stock trading 41% below its September 52-week high, the TikTok partnership has reignited investor confidence in Oracle’s cloud security narrative. The move underscores the company’s strategic positioning in AI-driven data governance, a sector where regulatory scrutiny is intensifying.

TikTok Partnership Averts U.S. Ban, Boosts Oracle's Cloud Credibility
Oracle’s 7.7% intraday surge stems from its involvement in a joint venture to operate TikTok’s U.S. business, a deal that prevents a potential ban under national security laws. The partnership, which includes Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi-based MGX, positions Oracle as the custodian of U.S. data and algorithmic security for the platform. This development directly counters recent investor anxiety over Oracle’s stalled $10 billion data center deal with Blue Owl Capital, which had triggered a 4.5% selloff two days prior. The TikTok agreement not only secures a high-margin cloud customer but also reinforces Oracle’s narrative as a critical infrastructure provider in the AI and data security space.

Leveraged ETFs and Call Options Highlight Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: 213.35 (below current price) • RSI: 35.7 (oversold) • MACD: -13.71 (bearish divergence) • Bollinger Bands: Price at 193.98 (near lower band at 175.39) • Key resistance: 200D MA at 213.35

Oracle’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound from oversold levels, with the 200-day moving average acting as a critical psychological hurdle. The Direxion Daily ORCL Bull 2X ETF (ORCU) and Defiance Daily Target 2X Long ORCL ETF (ORCX) are amplifying the move, surging 15.6% as retail traders bet on continuation. For options, two contracts stand out:

• ORCL20251226C195 (Call, $195 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 36.86% (moderate)
- Leverage ratio: 50.41%
- Delta: 0.48 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.6047 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0376 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $4.2M
- Payoff at 5% upside (203.68): $8.68/share
This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5-7% rally.

• ORCL20251226C200 (Call, $200 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 36.95% (moderate)
- Leverage ratio: 96.56%
- Delta: 0.30 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.4509 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0330 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $6.05M
- Payoff at 5% upside (203.68): $3.68/share
This high-leverage option suits aggressive bulls targeting a breakout above $200.

Aggressive bulls may consider ORCL20251226C195 into a bounce above $195.

Backtest Oracle Stock Performance
The backtest of Oracle (ORCL) following an 8% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows a strategy that underperformed the benchmark with a -7.44% return, compared to a -20.00% return for the benchmark. Despite this, the strategy achieved a 12.55% excess return and a CAGR of -7.68%, indicating some resilience but with significant volatility and a maximum drawdown of 0.00%, highlighting the risk of holding ORCL during this period.

Oracle’s TikTok Win: A Strategic Inflection Point or Short-Term Rally?
Oracle’s 7.7% surge hinges on its ability to sustain momentum above $195, with the 200-day moving average at $213.35 acting as a critical test. While the TikTok partnership addresses regulatory risks, investors must monitor Oracle’s debt load and AI infrastructure funding. The sector leader, Amazon (AMZN), is up 0.8%, suggesting broader IT Services resilience. For now, the Direxion Daily ORCL Bull 2X ETF (ORCU) and ORCL20251226C195 offer high-conviction plays if the stock breaks above $195. Watch for a close above $200 to confirm a bullish reversal.