OPENUSDT Market Overview for 2025-09-10

• OpenLedger/Tether (OPENUSDT) dropped sharply from $1.56 to $1.16 on heavy volume, signaling a bearish reversal.
• Price closed at $1.1620, down 37.2% from its 24-hour high of $1.5665, with RSI approaching oversold territory.
• Volatility spiked during the early ET hours, followed by a consolidation phase into tighter Bollinger Band ranges.
• The 20-period MA failed to cross above the 50-period MA, suggesting bearish momentum is likely to persist.
• Divergences between price and turnover suggest mixed sentiment, with high volume but low conviction in the short-term direction.

OPENUSDT opened at $1.1044 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of $1.5665 before closing at $1.1620 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-10. Total volume was 40,945,947.6, and notional turnover was $45,134,506.4, showing significant price movement amid high volatility.

Structure & Formations

OPENUSDT formed a bearish engulfing pattern early in the trading session, confirming a sharp sell-off from $1.5665 to $1.2079 within a two-hour span. A long lower shadow appeared later at $1.2346, suggesting temporary buying pressure, but the price failed to break above 1.24. A doji at $1.2079 indicated indecision. The 24-hour session closed near the lower end of the range, forming a bearish trend continuation pattern. Key support levels include $1.15–$1.16 and $1.10–$1.12, with resistance at $1.20 and $1.24.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in a bearish death cross pattern. The 50-period MA is now at $1.159, while the 100-period MA is at $1.170, both below the current price. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA sits at $1.190, with the price now below all key moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish after a strong positive divergence, with the histogram shrinking as bearish momentum took over. RSI dropped to 30, suggesting an oversold condition, but with volume declining, it appears to be a false signal. A bounce is possible, but without a convincing crossover above 50, the downtrend is likely to continue.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the early ET hours, with a 38% widening of the bands. Price briefly broke out to $1.5665, then collapsed back into a narrower range. Currently, the price is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a potential rebound or further consolidation. A breakout above the upper band may require a sustained move past $1.24.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the early ET hours, with a 15-minute candle recording 12.4 million traded units. Notional turnover also surged, but it diverged from the price movement during the afternoon, indicating waning selling pressure. This divergence may suggest a short-term bounce is possible.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the major swing high at $1.5665 and the swing low at $1.1028, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at $1.3335 and the 61.8% is at $1.2107. The current price is near the 61.8% level, suggesting that a break below $1.16 may trigger a retest of the 38.2% level, but only if momentum supports it.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on a breakout and momentum-based approach, using the 20-period MA as a signal line and the RSI as a filter. A long position is triggered when price crosses above the 20-period MA with RSI above 50, and a short signal is generated when price falls below the 20-period MA with RSI below 40. Stop-loss is set at 1.5 times the ATR, and take-profit is at 2:1 reward-to-risk. This strategy aligns with the current bearish structure, particularly with the price below all key moving averages and RSI near oversold levels. A short bias is justified, though confirmation of a bearish breakout past $1.16 is needed.