OpenLedger/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-15

• Price surged above 1.00 but corrected sharply below 0.99 within 24 hours
• High volatility with volume spiking to 1.4M contracts during midday
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions before sharp sell-off
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during initial rally and contraction during decline
• Fibonacci levels at 0.978 and 0.992 acted as key support and resistance

OPENUSDT opened at 0.9753 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 1.0234 before closing at 0.9160 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.9697 and 1.0234, with a total volume of 108,961,499.15 and notional turnover of 98,247,433.45 USD.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a sharp bullish impulse followed by a deep correction. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 1.0167, confirming a short-term reversal. A key support level emerged at 0.9160-0.9200, with 0.9414 as a secondary level. A doji appeared at 0.9861, signaling indecision. The price may find near-term support at 0.9062 and resistance at 0.9224.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a strong bearish crossover during the late afternoon. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at 0.985, 100-period at 0.978, and 200-period at 0.972 suggested a bearish bias. Price currently sits below all key moving averages, indicating further downside could be in play.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish with a large negative histogram during the early morning sell-off. RSI dipped to 30 at 0.9160, suggesting oversold conditions. However, the divergence between RSI and price during the afternoon suggested weakening momentum. The RSI could rise toward 40-50 in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed strong expansion during the initial bullish move, with price reaching the upper band at 1.0234. As the correction deepened, the bands contracted, and price settled near the lower band at 0.9062. This suggests volatility has normalized, with price currently trading in a tight range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to a high of 1.4M contracts during the midday sell-off and remained elevated for the remainder of the session. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the move lower. A divergence occurred in the late afternoon where volume declined while price continued to fall, suggesting a potential exhaustion of sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the key 0.9753 to 1.0234 swing showed price finding support at the 61.8% retracement level at 0.992, and then at the 38.2% level at 0.978. On the daily chart, price appears to be testing the 61.8% retracement of the broader bullish trend from 0.9200, suggesting further testing of 0.9062 could occur.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve using the 20-period moving average as a trigger to go long when price retests key Fibonacci levels and RSI indicates oversold conditions. Given the current bearish momentum and tight Bollinger Bands, a short position may be initiated if volume increases and price breaks below the 0.9062 support.