OpenAI Valuation: Worth $500 Billion?

OpenAI is reportedly exploring a private share sale that could value the company at $500 billion. While some argue that the AI revolution makes OpenAI a foundational platform, others note that its valuation of 25 times sales is rich and driven by enthusiasm rather than fundamentals. The market's recent performance, with loss-making tech stocks up 57% and bitcoin-sensitive names up 112%, suggests that momentum is driving prices more than profits.

OpenAI is reportedly exploring a private share sale that could push the company's valuation to around $500 billion. The potential deal, still in early stages, would allow employees to cash out while marking a significant jump from the company's current $300 billion valuation [1].

The share sale is being discussed at a time when OpenAI's growth has been rapid, fueled by the popularity of its ChatGPT chatbot and ongoing enterprise partnerships. The company's revenue has doubled in the first seven months of 2025, reaching an annualized revenue run rate of [2].

Existing investors, including Thrive Capital, are participating in the discussions. If finalized, the deal would offer employees a way to monetize their equity, which is particularly relevant given the intense competition for AI talent. Tech giants like Meta are reportedly offering highly attractive pay packages to lure top researchers and engineers [1].

SoftBank Group Corp., a major investor in OpenAI, reported strong earnings for the first quarter of 2026, with Vision Fund investments generating $5 billion in gains. OpenAI's annual recurring revenue is expected to reach $12 billion, more than doubling from $5.5 billion in December 2024 [3].

However, the market's recent performance suggests that momentum is driving prices more than profits. Loss-making tech stocks have seen a 57% increase, and bitcoin-sensitive names have surged by 112% [3].

The proposed deal highlights OpenAI's rapid growth and strategic shift toward a future IPO, while also addressing employee liquidity needs. The company's valuation of 25 times sales is seen as rich by some, driven more by enthusiasm than fundamentals. Despite this, OpenAI's growth and the potential of its AI technology make it a foundational platform in the AI revolution.

References:
[1] https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/278492684/openai-mulls-usd500-billion-valuation-in-new-employee-share-sale-talks
[2] https://medium.com/@v.langston.journalist/openai-nears-500b-valuation-as-chatgpt-hits-700m-users-and-20b-revenue-3dbf92b62e31
[3] https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/08/46990730/softbank-stock-surges-10-after-exec-teases-12-billion-openai-windfall-but-500-billion-stargate-ai-project-pitched-to-trump-hits-snags