OPEC+ schedules next meeting to discuss supply for Sept. 7

OPEC+ schedules next meeting to discuss supply for Sept. 7

OPEC+ has scheduled a virtual meeting for September 7 to finalize a preliminary agreement to boost oil production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September. This move, which reflects the group's strategic shift from supply restraint to responding to evolving market conditions, is expected to reverse a 2.2 million bpd supply cut that had been in place since 2023 [1].

The decision to increase production comes amid geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand fluctuations. OPEC+ has been aggressively expanding output since early April, implementing a series of significant production increases. The latest adjustment, if confirmed, will be the final step in restoring the 2.2 million bpd previously withheld [1].

Brent crude prices have fallen to $69.67 per barrel as of early August, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has dropped to $67.33. Despite the downward pressure, both benchmarks recorded weekly gains, with Brent up nearly 6% and WTI rising by 6.29% [1]. Analysts, however, remain cautious, with Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital LLC, noting that producers may soon pause further output increases while assessing broader macroeconomic trends [1].

The United Arab Emirates is set to receive a phased addition to its quota as part of the production increase. The group still has 1.66 million bpd of output officially scheduled to remain offline until the end of 2026, but market expectations are growing that this supply could return earlier than planned [3].

The situation is further complicated by geopolitical developments. The U.S. government has threatened to impose secondary sanctions on countries importing Russian oil unless a ceasefire is announced in the Ukraine war soon. These measures could disrupt global supply chains and drive prices upward, contradicting President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for lower energy costs [1]. In response, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak recently visited Riyadh to discuss cooperation with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman [1].

While the final production increase is expected to be confirmed by the weekend, some internal discussions suggest the actual volume may fall slightly short of the 548,000 bpd initially proposed. The move underscores OPEC+’s willingness to rapidly adjust output in response to shifting conditions, even at the risk of oversupply [1].

With demand under pressure from slowing global growth and political uncertainties, the coming months will be pivotal in determining the sustainability of the alliance’s current strategy.

References:
[1] https://www.ndtvprofit.com/world/opec-agrees-in-principle-to-another-bumper-supply
[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-02/opec-agrees-in-principle-to-548k-b-d-hike-in-sept-delegate
[3] https://www.polymerupdate.com/News/Details/1406295