OPEC says peak demand is not on the horizon and raises 2050 oil demand view to 122.9 million barrels per day

OPEC says peak demand is not on the horizon and raises 2050 oil demand view to 122.9 million barrels per day

In a significant update to its long-term oil demand projections, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its 2050 oil demand forecast to 122.9 million barrels per day (b/d) at its biannual Opec International Seminar in Vienna. This revised forecast, set to be released in the upcoming 2025 World Oil Output (WOO) report, reflects a further bullish outlook on global oil demand [1].

The updated forecast, which is well ahead of predictions from major oil companies and forecasting agencies, indicates that OPEC expects oil demand to continue increasing beyond 2050. This projection is notably higher than the 110 million b/d peak demand forecasted by many industry experts. The 2025 WOO report is expected to show a substantial increase from the 2024 WOO, which projected demand to reach 120 million b/d by 2050 [1].

During the seminar, Suhail al-Mazrouei, energy minister of the United Arab Emirates and OPEC’s No. 4 producer, asserted that the concept of peak demand is no longer a central topic in the industry. This sentiment was echoed by the CEOs of Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies, who participated in a panel discussion. Shell CEO Wael Sawan, in particular, highlighted the role of artificial intelligence and data centers in driving demand growth [1].

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser emphasized the importance of developing countries, such as India and China, in driving global oil demand over the long term. However, Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne expressed caution, noting a decline in China’s annual demand growth and expressing skepticism about the ability of Indian demand to fill the gap [1].

The 2025-26 outlook for oil demand and supply-demand balances remains diverse. While some panelists, including Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah of Kuwait Petroleum Corp., anticipate a healthy demand that will be met by non-Opec output growth, others, like Shell’s Sawan, caution that medium-term uncertainties make balances difficult to predict [1].

Goldman Sachs, in a separate analysis, expects OPEC+ members to increase oil production by 550,000 b/d in September, completing the unwinding of 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts. This move aims to normalize spare capacity amid resilient global oil demand. The bank forecasts crude production from eight OPEC+ members to rise by 1.67 million b/d between March and September, reaching 33.2 million b/d [2].

In summary, OPEC’s revised 2050 oil demand forecast underscores a continued optimism in global oil demand growth, driven by various factors including technological advancements and the economic growth of developing countries. The industry’s outlook remains varied, with differing views on the immediate and long-term supply-demand balances.

References:
[1] https://www.energyintel.com/00000197-f118-d9f4-a197-fb99b4fe0000
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3T4028:0-goldman-sachs-expects-opec-members-to-increase-oil-production-by-550-000-bpd-in-september/