OPEC+ Hesitates on April Oil Hike Amid Sanctions and Tariff Uncertainty

OPEC+ is grappling with a complex decision on whether to proceed with a planned April oil output increase, as sanctions on key producers and potential tariffs create uncertainty in the global oil market. The alliance, which includes OPEC members and Russia, is scheduled to raise production by 432,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April, but sources close to the matter suggest that no consensus has been reached yet.

The hesitation stems from the combination of bullish and bearish factors that have made decision-making challenging for OPEC+. On one hand, US President Donald Trump's renewed pressure on OPEC to bring down oil prices, along with the cancellation of Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela, has prevented prices from falling further. On the other hand, the potential lifting of sanctions on Russia and the threat of global tariffs could reduce oil demand and complicate the outlook.

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on March 5-7 to finalize its April production policy, but the lack of consensus among members highlights the difficulty in navigating the current market dynamics. Some members, such as the United Arab Emirates and Russia, favor proceeding with the increase, while others, including Saudi Arabia, prefer a delay.



The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies could further influence OPEC+'s production plans and the global oil market. If the US imposes tariffs on oil imports, it could reduce demand for OPEC+ crude, potentially leading to a buildup of inventories and putting downward pressure on oil prices. Additionally, if the US imposes tariffs on oil exports from OPEC+ countries, it could disrupt the global oil market and trigger a retaliatory response from OPEC+ members.



In conclusion, the uncertainty surrounding sanctions and tariffs has made OPEC+'s decision on the April oil hike complex and challenging. The alliance must consider the potential impact of these factors on both supply and demand, as well as the internal dynamics of the alliance, to reach a consensus on the production policy for April. The outcome of this decision will have significant implications for the global oil market and geopolitical dynamics in the coming months.