OPEC+ to boost October oil production by 137K b/d: delegates

OPEC+ to boost October oil production by 137K b/d: delegates

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, have agreed in principle to raise oil production by an additional 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October 2025, according to Bloomberg. This decision marks the beginning of the gradual return of 1.66 million bpd in production cuts that were initially slated to remain in place until the end of 2026 [1].

The virtual meeting on Sunday is expected to ratify this agreement, which comes just weeks after the group fast-tracked the reinstatement of 2.2 million bpd of halted output — a year earlier than planned. However, Bloomberg reports that the actual volume is likely to be lower than announced due to pressure on some members to compensate for earlier oversupply and forgo their share of production hikes, while several countries lack spare capacity [1].

The move reflects a tension that has dominated oil markets for months: while forecasters are issuing warnings about a looming supply surplus, markets have remained relatively tight over the northern hemisphere summer [1].

This decision is particularly significant for Nigeria, which has seen its average daily crude oil production rise to 1.507 million bpd in July 2025, surpassing the OPEC target for the second month in a row. Despite this progress, Nigeria continues to face major challenges such as oil theft, lack of investment in its oil facilities, and frequent damage to pipelines [1].

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned that continued underperformance in the oil sector could threaten the federal government's ability to meet its planned budgetary commitments and sustain key national projects [1].

The recent decline in U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude by 1% to $63.40 per barrel and Brent crude by 1% to $67.00 per barrel underscores the market's response to the anticipated increase in production [1]. Both prices are trading below Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75.

OPEC+ has already raised production by about 2.5 million bpd since April, boosting market share amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to lower oil prices. However, these increases have failed to significantly dent oil prices, which are trading near $66 a barrel due to Western sanctions on Russia and Iran [2, 3].

OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world's oil, will begin to unwind a second tranche of cuts of about 1.65 million bpd in gradual monthly increments. The group has reached an agreement in principle to raise output by at least 135,000 bpd from October, with the potential for a larger increase of between 200,000 and 350,000 bpd [2, 3].

References:
[1] https://nairametrics.com/2025/09/06/opec-moves-to-boost-oil-output-by-additional-137000bpd-in-october-2025-report/
[2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-raise-oil-output-further-october-sources-say-2025-09-07/
[3] https://news.az/news/opec-poised-to-boost-oil-supply-signals-smaller-increases-ahead