ONTUSDT Market Overview – October 6, 2025 (24-Hour)

• Ontology/Tether declined 2.1% over 24 hours amid sustained bearish momentum and low volatility.
• Price tested key support at 0.1243–0.1245, bouncing with confirmation in late-night volume.
• RSI remains below 30, indicating oversold territory but limited short-term reversal signals.
• High-volume candle at 0.1243–0.1247 showed aggressive buying despite weak follow-through.
• MACD trended lower but showed narrowing divergence as price bottomed near 0.1243.

ONTUSDT opened at 0.1274 (12:00 ET–1), reached a high of 0.1297, a low of 0.1242, and closed at 0.1270 (12:00 ET). Total volume was 4,154,851 and turnover was $509,711 over 24 hours. Price action reflected bearish dominance from late night to early morning, with a late-day rebound that lacked conviction.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed clear bearish control overnight, with a long bearish candle forming after 02:00 ET that gapped down from 0.1254 to 0.1247. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged after 09:00 ET, closing near the high of the session at 0.1267–0.1269. The 0.1243–0.1245 zone acted as strong support, with multiple bounces and a confirmation candle at 01:15 ET. A morning doji at 05:15 ET hinted at indecision before a sharp rebound. Resistance levels at 0.1277, 0.1280, and 0.1289 appear relevant for near-term upside attempts.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA at 0.1245–0.1247 closely followed price during the morning rebound. The 50-period MA remained bearish at 0.1243–0.1245, aligning with the support zone. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 0.1255, above the 200-period MA at 0.1241, forming a potential bullish crossover zone if the pair closes above 0.1260 in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

MACD trended lower until 04:00 ET, bottoming at -0.0006 before a sharp positive crossover triggered the late-day rebound. RSI bottomed at 28, entering oversold territory and failing to cross above 30 until the morning rebound, suggesting exhaustion at lower levels but limited near-term reversal potential. Divergence between the bearish MACD and RSI is narrowing, indicating possible stabilization.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained low until the early morning rebound, with price hovering near the lower band at 0.1243–0.1245. The 20-period Bollinger Band width expanded from 0.0002 to 0.0005 during the rebound, confirming the move. Price closed near the middle band at 0.1254–0.1257, indicating moderate strength but no breakout attempt. The upper band at 0.1270–0.1272 may act as immediate resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 01:15 ET and again at 09:00 ET, both associated with price bounces near 0.1243–0.1247 and 0.1265–0.1267. Turnover increased in line with volume, confirming the morning rally. A divergence occurred at 02:45 ET, where volume was high but price movement was limited. This suggests potential order block accumulation around the 0.1245–0.1247 range.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 15-minute swing from 0.1242 to 0.1297 shows a 61.8% retracement at 0.1266–0.1267, which coincides with the morning rebound. Daily Fibonacci levels indicate a 50% retracement at 0.1254 and a 38.2% level at 0.1263, both of which align with recent highs. A close above 0.1280 would trigger a 61.8% retracement level, potentially inviting more buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on Fibonacci retracement levels and volume confirmation for long entries in a post-breakout setup. The idea is to enter long at the 61.8% retracement level following a confirmed bullish reversal pattern with volume confirmation. In the case of ONTUSDT, this would involve an entry near 0.1266–0.1267, with a stop-loss below 0.1252 (support zone) and a target at 0.1280–0.1285. The morning rebound and volume confirmation at this level suggest the strategy could capture a continuation of the bullish trend if the breakout holds.