ONTF Surges 37% in Volatile Session as AI Sector Gains Momentum

Summary
• ONTF’s stock price rockets 37.03% to $8.03, hitting its 52-week high of $8.045
• Intraday range narrows to $7.97–$8.045, signaling tight consolidation ahead of expiry
• Options chain shows 217x volume in the January 7.5 put and 14x volume in the January 7.5 call

ONTF’s explosive move on 2025-12-30 defies the sector’s muted performance, with the stock surging to its 52-week peak amid a broader AI-driven tech rally. The intraday high aligns with the 52-week high, suggesting a potential breakout. Options activity intensifies as traders position for volatility, with the January 7.5 call and put contracts dominating turnover.

AI-Driven Tech Sector Rally Fuels ONTF's Record High
ONTF’s meteoric rise stems from a confluence of sector-wide AI optimism and regulatory tailwinds. The Trump administration’s pro-tech policies, highlighted in sector news, have emboldened investors to chase AI beneficiaries. Additionally, the stock’s 52-week high price of $8.045—reached today—signals a psychological threshold breach, attracting algorithmic and retail buyers. The absence of company-specific news shifts focus to macro trends, with ONTF’s Internet Software & Services sector peers like Zoom (ZM) lagging despite broader tech gains.

ONTF Outpaces Internet Software & Services Sector as Zoom Drags
While ONTF surged 37%, the sector’s leader Zoom (ZM) fell -0.225% intraday, underscoring divergent momentum within the Internet Software & Services space. This dislocation suggests ONTF’s rally is driven by speculative positioning rather than fundamental sector rotation. The sector’s mixed performance—bolstered by AI optimism but weighed by ZM’s underperformance—highlights ONTF as a high-beta play on AI infrastructure demand.

ONTF Options and ETFs: Capitalizing on AI-Driven Volatility
• MACD: 0.060 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.080 (bearish crossover), RSI: 38.89 (oversold)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $8.03 (above upper band of $6.10), 200D MA: $5.37 (far below)

ONTF’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum, with RSI at oversold levels and price testing the 52-week high. The most compelling options are ONTF20260116C7.5 and ONTF20260320C7.5.

• ONTF20260116C7.5 (Call):
- Strike: $7.50, Expiry: 2026-01-16, IV: 33.84%, Delta: 0.835, Theta: -0.018, Gamma: 0.412, Turnover: 865
- IV (high volatility), Delta (high sensitivity), Gamma (strong price responsiveness)
- This contract offers 13.38% leverage with a 33.84% IV, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (projected payoff: $0.53). High liquidity (865 turnover) ensures smooth entry.

• ONTF20260320C7.5 (Call):
- Strike: $7.50, Expiry: 2026-03-20, IV: 23.46%, Delta: 0.775, Theta: -0.004, Gamma: 0.338, Turnover: 12,003
- IV (moderate), Delta (high), Gamma (strong)
- With 11.15% leverage and 12,003 turnover, this contract balances time decay (theta) and gamma for a mid-term play. Projected 5% upside payoff: $0.53.

Aggressive bulls should buy ONTF20260116C7.5 into a breakout above $8.045. Conservative traders may hold ONTF20260320C7.5 for a March 2026 rally.

Backtest ON24 Stock Performance
The 37% intraday surge in ONTF from 2022 to now has not resulted in positive long-term performance. The backtest shows mixed short-term win rates, with a 3-day win rate of 51.34%, a 10-day win rate of 46.51%, and a 30-day win rate of 38.17%. However, the returns over these periods are negative, with a 3-day return of -0.32%, a 10-day return of -1.32%, and a 30-day return of -3.20%. The maximum return during the backtest was only -0.10%, indicating that the surge did not lead to significant long-term gains.

ONTF's Breakout Demands Immediate Attention as AI Momentum Builds
ONTF’s 37% surge to its 52-week high marks a pivotal inflection point. The stock’s alignment with AI-driven tech policies and its divergence from sector peers like Zoom (ZM, -0.225%) suggest a speculative frenzy. Traders must watch the $8.045 level for a confirmed breakout and the 200D MA at $5.37 for a potential reversal. With AI sector optimism intact and options liquidity surging, ONTF20260116C7.5 offers a high-leverage vehicle for capitalizing on this momentum. Investors should also monitor ZM’s performance as a sector barometer.