OneStream (OS) Surges 23% on Buyout Buzz: Can This Take-Private Play Sustain Momentum?

Summary
• OneStream (OS) rockets 23.16% to $22.65, trading above its 52-week high of $30.93
• Buyout firm Hg Capital nears deal to take OneStream private, per Bloomberg
• Options frenzy: 170 contracts traded for the $22.5 call expiring Jan 16
• Sector leader Workday (WDAY) dips 0.94%, signaling mixed tech sector sentiment

OneStream’s shares are surging on a whirlwind of takeover speculation as Hg Capital edges closer to a deal. The stock’s 23% intraday jump—its largest single-day move since the 2024 IPO—has ignited a frenzy in the options market. With the company’s market cap now at $4.5 billion, investors are scrambling to position for a potential liquidity event. The move starkly contrasts with a weak broader tech sector, as Workday’s decline highlights divergent market dynamics.

Private Equity Buyout Talks Ignite OneStream’s Bull Run
The explosive move in OneStream (OS) is directly tied to Bloomberg’s report that Hg Capital is in advanced talks to acquire the company. This buyout speculation has triggered a classic 'take-private' trade, where investors bet on a premium over the current share price. The news follows months of rumors about OneStream’s strategic options, including a November Reuters report that highlighted Hg as a potential suitor. With Hg managing $100 billion in assets and a track record in SaaS acquisitions (e.g., Visma, Rhapsody), the market is pricing in a credible bid. The stock’s 15% premarket surge and 23% intraday gain reflect a premium over its $18.39 close, aligning with the $22.5 strike price of the most active options contracts.

Software Sector Splits: OneStream’s Buyout Play vs. WDAY’s Struggles
While OneStream’s rally is fueled by a specific buyout narrative, the broader Software & Services sector is mixed. Sector leader Workday (WDAY) fell 0.94% on the day, underscoring divergent investor sentiment. WDAY’s decline may reflect broader concerns about SaaS valuations, particularly after OneStream’s 35% drop from its 2024 IPO price. The contrast highlights how idiosyncratic catalysts—like a private equity buyout—can outperform macro trends in the sector. However, OneStream’s 23% move also risks overbidding if Hg’s offer materializes at a lower premium than current market pricing.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in OneStream’s Take-Private Trade
• 200-day MA: $21.93 (above) • RSI: 55.69 (neutral) • MACD: -0.28 (bullish histogram) • Bollinger Bands: $17.26–$19.41 (price at 22.65, outside upper band)

OneStream’s technicals suggest a breakout scenario. The stock has pierced above its 200-day MA and is trading at a 25% premium to its 52-week low. The RSI at 55.69 indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for further upside. The most compelling options plays are:

• OS20260116C22.5 (Call, $22.5 strike, Jan 16 expiry):
- IV: 70.29% (elevated, reflecting takeover premium)
- Leverage Ratio: 18.89% (high)
- Delta: 0.55 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0927 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.143 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $21,560 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $1.28/share (max(0, 23.78 - 22.5))
This contract offers aggressive leverage for a short-term trade, ideal for capitalizing on a potential bid announcement before the Jan 16 expiry.

• OS20260220C22.5 (Call, $22.5 strike, Feb 20 expiry):
- IV: 26.60% (reasonable)
- Leverage Ratio: 22.67% (high)
- Delta: 0.57 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.01999 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.183 (high)
- Turnover: $7,080 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $1.28/share
This longer-dated option balances time decay with liquidity, offering a safer play if the deal extends beyond January.

Action: Aggressive bulls should target OS20260116C22.5 for a high-leverage, short-term play. Conservative investors may prefer OS20260220C22.5 to hedge against timing risks. Both contracts benefit from OneStream’s current price above $22.5, with the $22.5 strike acting as a psychological floor.

Backtest OneStream Stock Performance
The backtest of OS's performance after a 23% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the 3-Day win rate is high at 43.90%, the overall return over the 30-Day period is negative at -1.98%, with a maximum return of only 0.01% over the entire backtest period. This suggests that while OS may experience short-term gains, it is not able to sustain long-term performance following a significant intraday surge.

OneStream’s Take-Private Play: Now or Never?
OneStream’s 23% surge hinges on the credibility of Hg Capital’s buyout talks. If the deal materializes, the stock could see a premium closer to $25–$27, aligning with the $25 call options’ elevated IV. However, the stock’s 200-day MA at $21.93 and Bollinger Bands suggest a potential pullback to $18.33–$19.41 if the bid falters. Investors should monitor Hg’s comments and OneStream’s regulatory filings for confirmation. Meanwhile, Workday’s 0.94% decline underscores the sector’s fragility, making OneStream’s buyout narrative a standout. Watch for a $22.5 support break or Hg’s official announcement by Jan 16.