Oneok Outlook - Navigating Weak Technicals and Mixed Fundamentals

Market Snapshot

Headline: Oneok's technical indicators show a weak outlook, suggesting it may be best to avoid for now. The stock has seen a recent price fall of 3.47%, with technical indicators leaning heavily bearish (3 out of 4 bearish signals) and no bullish signs. The overall technical score is a low 3.79 (internal diagnostic score), signaling weak momentum.

News Highlights

1. Nigeria's Tinubu Introduces Fresh Incentives for Oil Sector Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has announced a new executive order aimed at reducing project costs and increasing investment in the oil and gas sector. This could have a broader positive impact on global energy players like Oneok, though the direct effect on the company may be limited in the short term.

2. OPEC+ Announces Another Large Output Hike OPEC+ countries have agreed on a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, which could lead to a more bearish supply-demand balance in the oil market. This could weigh on oil prices and consequently on Oneok, as a drop in energy prices typically impacts midstream and upstream players.

3. Russian Oil Sector Under Strain Reports indicate that Russian oil production has hit a nine-year low, and the country's oil sector is under financial stress. While this could disrupt global oil markets, it also raises concerns about geopolitical stability and energy prices, adding to market volatility.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst landscape for Oneok is mixed. Three major institutions have weighed in with a range of views:

• RBC Capital (Elvira Scotto): Neutral rating. This analyst has a historical winning rate of 66.7%, suggesting a relatively solid track record.
• Morgan Stanley (Robert Kad): Buy rating. However, this analyst has a weaker historical win rate of 33.3%, and a negative average historical return of -6.79%.
• Mizuho (Gabriel Moreen): Neutral rating. The analyst has an extremely poor historical win rate of 0.0% and a negative average return of -5.94%.

Average (simple mean) analyst rating score: 3.33Weighted (performance-weighted) analyst rating score: 1.54Rating consistency: Dispersed

These ratings are broadly in line with the recent price trend of a 3.47% fall, though the weighted score is significantly lower, reflecting poor historical performance from some analysts.

Key fundamental factors and their model scores:

• Price-to-Book (PB): 0.27 – Internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• Profit-to-Market Value (Profit-MV): 1.31 – Internal diagnostic score: 0.00
• Net Income-to-Revenue: 19.65% – Internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• Inventory Turnover Ratio: 13.72 – Internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• Long-Term Debt-to-Working Capital Ratio: 7.11% – Internal diagnostic score: 1.00
• Asset-to-Market Value (Asset-MV): 1.59 – Internal diagnostic score: 3.00

While some fundamental factors like Asset-MV show moderate strength, the overall fundamental score is 3.27 (internal diagnostic score), suggesting mixed financial health.

Money-Flow Trends

Oneok has seen a negative trend in money flow across all categories, from small to extra-large. The overall inflow ratio is 0.49, and the fund-flow score is 7.78 (internal diagnostic score), which is labeled as "good." This suggests that while retail and institutional flows are trending downward, the market still sees some value in the stock.

The large and extra-large money flows are particularly bearish, with both showing negative trends. However, the fact that the overall score is positive suggests that large investors might still be positioning for a potential rebound.

Key Technical Signals

Oneok’s technical outlook is weak. Three out of four key indicators are bearish, and there are no bullish signals. Here’s a breakdown of the internal diagnostic scores for recent indicators:

• WR Overbought – Internal diagnostic score: 2.40
• WR Oversold – Internal diagnostic score: 2.62
• MACD Golden Cross – Internal diagnostic score: 3.70
• MACD Death Cross – Internal diagnostic score: 6.45

Key recent chart patterns:

• 2025-08-25: MACD Golden Cross
• 2025-08-28: WR Overbought
• 2025-09-08: WR Oversold and MACD Death Cross

The technical indicators highlight an unstable price trend, with conflicting signals (overbought and oversold) and a death cross, which is a bearish pattern. The overall trend is negative, and the key insight is that the direction is unclear due to high volatility.

Conclusion

Oneok appears to be in a challenging phase both technically and fundamentally. The stock has a weak technical score (3.79), mixed fundamentals (3.27), and a dispersed analyst outlook. While large money flows remain slightly positive (7.78), the overall price trend is down by 3.47%.

Actionable Takeaway: Consider waiting for a clearer trend to emerge before taking a position. A pull-back or more positive technical confirmation could improve risk-reward, but for now, the signals point to a cautious stance.