ONDO: Is the Undervaluation Outweighing the Sell Pressure?

The cryptocurrency market in late 2025 remains a theater of contradictions, where bearish price action often clashes with on-chain signals of accumulation. For ONDO, the token underpinning the Ondo Finance platform, this tension is particularly pronounced. While its price has struggled to break above $1.14 amid broader altcoin weakness, on-chain data from Santiment and Glassnode reveals a compelling narrative of undervaluation and growing institutional interest. This article dissects the conflict between bearish price dynamics and bullish accumulation signals to determine whether ONDO’s current divergence presents a contrarian entry point for long-term investors.

Bearish Price Action vs. Accumulation Signals

ONDO’s price trajectory in Q3 2025 has been characterized by lower highs and a lack of momentum, with the token hovering near key support levels. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) metric from Glassnode dipped below -0.05 in September, signaling capital outflows and bearish sentiment [1]. However, this bearishness is counterbalanced by on-chain accumulation metrics. Santiment’s data highlights a Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio in the “yellow zone” at 0.37, indicating that unrealized profits outweigh losses, a sign of cautious optimism [2]. This contrasts with Bitcoin’s NUPL of 0.52, which reflects a more fragile market sentiment [3].

Glassnode’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for ONDO at 0.98 further underscores this divergence: many holders are selling at a loss, yet smaller wallets (holding up to 1M ONDO) show increased buying pressure [1]. This suggests that retail investors are accumulating at discounted prices, while larger holders may be liquidating. The “age consumed” metric, which tracks dormant token movement, remains quiet, indicating no large-scale sell-offs—a positive sign for stability [1].

Whale Activity and Institutional Validation

Whale behavior adds another layer of intrigue. Santiment’s analysis notes a surge in whale accumulation, with large holders (1M–100M ONDO) maintaining their positions despite volatility [2]. This aligns with broader trends in the crypto market, where institutional-grade projects like Ondo Finance are gaining traction. For instance, Ondo’s Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization efforts have attracted recognition from the Global Markets Alliance and Bank of America, positioning the platform as a key player in institutional infrastructure [4]. Such validation could drive demand for ONDO, as institutional adoption often precedes price appreciation.

Meanwhile, the Total Value Locked (TVL) in Ondo’s ecosystem has approached $1.376 billion, a record high, while weekly revenue figures remain robust [2]. These metrics suggest that the protocol’s utility is expanding, even as its token price lags.

Technical and Market Divergence

Technically, ONDO has shown signs of resilience. A bullish divergence emerged near the $0.95 resistance level, with the price recovering to $1.05 amid a 40.65% surge in spot trading volume [2]. Analysts project a potential 5x rally to $5 if key resistance is breached, though this remains speculative [5]. The recent listing of 10x leveraged perpetual contracts on Bitverse PerpDEX has also injected liquidity, attracting speculative capital [4].

However, the broader altcoin market remains a headwind. Tokens like DeFAI (ONDOAI) exhibit bearish structures, with prices below key moving averages and an oversold RSI [4]. This highlights the fragility of niche projects in a risk-off environment.

Is This a Contrarian Entry Point?

The divergence between ONDO’s bearish price action and accumulation signals creates a compelling case for long-term investors. While the CMF and SOPR metrics suggest short-term selling pressure, the NUPL ratio and whale activity indicate that the market is not in panic mode. The absence of dormant token movement and rising TVL further support the idea that ONDO is being accumulated at a discount.

Institutional adoption and RWA innovation add a layer of fundamental strength, which could drive demand once macroeconomic conditions improve. However, investors must remain cautious: the altcoin market’s volatility and Bitcoin’s mixed signals (e.g., a hidden bullish divergence in its daily charts [5]) mean that ONDO’s path to $5 is far from guaranteed.

Conclusion

ONDO’s current valuation appears to be caught in a tug-of-war between bearish sentiment and accumulation-driven optimism. While the price remains below critical resistance levels, on-chain data and institutional validation suggest that the token is undervalued relative to its fundamentals. For contrarian investors willing to navigate short-term volatility, this divergence could represent a strategic entry point—provided they align their risk tolerance with the broader market’s uncertain trajectory.

Source:
[1] The ONDO question: Why it's a buying opportunity laced with sell pressure risk [https://ambcrypto.com/the-ondo-question-why-its-a-buying-opportunity-with-sell-pressure-risk/]
[2] The storm of crypto surges is coming! ONDO triangle ... [https://www.binance.com/en-AE/square/post/27061898365154]
[3] Bitcoin's Mixed Signals: Short-Term Bearish, Long-... [https://www.21shares.com/en-ae/research/newsletter-issue-139]
[4] Latest Ondo (ONDO) News Update [https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/ondo-finance/latest-updates/]
[5] Bitcoin Price Recovery Holds Hidden Strength Above Key ... [https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-price-recovery-hidden-strength/]