ONDO's Near-Term Reversal Potential: A Strategic Buy Case at $0.86

The Technical Case for a Strategic Buy

ONDO's price action in September 2025 has formed a compelling technical setup, blending classical chart patterns with on-chain accumulation signals. The token is currently trading near $0.91, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern with a critical decision zone between $1.02 and $1.05, according to JrKripto. This pattern, historically a precursor to strong breakouts, suggests a potential upward move to $1.12 if the upper boundary is breached. Concurrently, an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern has emerged, with a neckline at $1.1260 and a projected price target of $1.6392, per Invezz. These formations, combined with ONDO's retest of key support levels, create a high-probability scenario for a near-term reversal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers around 63.79, indicating neutral market conditions, as reported by JrKripto, while the MACD has shown mixed signals-fluctuating between bearish (-0.0007) and neutral readings, according to Blocknests. However, the token's price has recently crossed above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, and the RSI has breached the 50 threshold, signaling growing bullish momentum, per The Market Periodical. These indicators suggest that ONDO is transitioning from a consolidation phase to a breakout phase, with $0.86 acting as a critical support level to watch.

On-Chain Accumulation and Institutional Confidence

ONDO's on-chain activity in September 2025 has reinforced the technical case for a reversal. Whale transactions surged by 201% in the past 24 hours, according to Invezz, a stark contrast to the bearish sentiment observed in broader crypto markets. This surge coincided with a retest of the $0.91 level, suggesting that large holders are accumulating at discounted prices. Additionally, $5.4 million worth of ONDO tokens have moved out of exchanges into private wallets, another sign of long-term holder confidence reported by Invezz.

The Total Value Locked (TVL) in Ondo Finance's ecosystem has also skyrocketed to $1.39 billion, up from $549 million at the start of 2025, as noted by The Market Periodical. This growth is driven by products like the Ondo US Dollar Yield (USDY) token ($693M TVL) and the Ondo Short-Term US Treasuries Fund (OUSG) ($723M TVL). The recent launch of Ondo Global Markets, which tokenizes real-world assets like stocks, has further boosted TVL by $160 million, according to Invezz, attracting institutional and retail liquidity. Such fundamentals strengthen ONDO's narrative as a bridge between traditional finance and decentralized markets.

Bear-Bull Dynamics and Risk Mitigation

While the technical and on-chain signals are bullish, short-term volatility remains a risk. If ONDO fails to break above $1.05, it could retest the $0.87 support level, as covered by JrKripto, with a breakdown risk to $0.74. However, the growing TVL and whale activity suggest that the bearish scenario is less likely. A strategic buy near $0.86-just below the current support-offers a favorable risk-reward profile, with a price target of $1.12 (the triangle's upper boundary) and a stop-loss below $0.81.

Market analysts caution that macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate decisions and broader crypto market sentiment, could influence ONDO's trajectory, according to On The Node. However, the token's dominance in the real-world asset (RWA) sector-maintaining the highest transaction volume among RWA tokens despite market downturns-positions it as a resilient play in a niche but rapidly expanding segment, as reported by Crypto.News.

Conclusion

ONDO's technical setup, on-chain accumulation, and ecosystem growth create a compelling case for a near-term reversal. The convergence of a symmetrical triangle breakout, inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, and whale-driven accumulation suggests that the token is poised to test $1.12 in the coming weeks. For investors, a strategic entry near $0.86 offers exposure to a high-conviction trade with a clear price target and risk management framework. As Ondo Finance continues to expand its RWA offerings, the token's fundamentals and technicals align to support a bullish outlook.