Ondas Holdings (ONDS) Surges 11% on $10M in New Autonomous Systems Orders – Is This the Catalyst for 2026?

Summary
• Ondas Holdings (ONDS) rockets 11.12% intraday to $9.99, surging from a $9.17 low to a $10.53 high.
• The stock trades at 35.28% turnover, with a 52-week high of $11.70 and a dynamic P/E of -76.38.
• New $10 million in autonomous systems orders and a $16.4 million counter-UAS win at European airports drive optimism.
• Analysts from Lake Street and Oppenheimer target $10–$12, while insider sales and volatility risks linger.

Ondas Holdings (ONDS) is surging on the back of a $10 million autonomous systems order wave, with management touting 2026 revenue targets of $110 million. The stock’s 11.12% intraday jump reflects growing demand for its multi-domain autonomy solutions, though insider sales and sector volatility pose near-term risks.

New $10M Orders Validate Ondas’ Multi-Domain Autonomy Strategy
Ondas’ 11.12% intraday surge is directly tied to its announcement of $10 million in new purchase orders for counter-UAS, autonomous drone, and robotic ground systems. These orders, coupled with a $16.4 million counter-UAS deployment win at European airports and a $23.3 million backlog, validate the company’s ‘System of Systems’ approach. Management emphasized sustained global demand for integrated air-ground security solutions, with a $110 million 2026 revenue target implying 205% growth from 2025. The stock’s breakout above key resistance levels (Bollinger Upper Band at $9.81) and rising RSI (48.43) suggest momentum is intact.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Mixed as LMT Slides
The broader Aerospace & Defense sector remains fragmented, with Lockheed Martin (LMT) down 0.49% despite Ondas’ rally. While Ondas benefits from its niche in autonomous systems and counter-UAS solutions, sector peers like Boeing and Raytheon face procurement delays and geopolitical uncertainties. Ondas’ focus on government and critical infrastructure contracts positions it to outperform in a sector where demand for integrated autonomy is accelerating.

ONDL ETF and High-Leverage Calls Target 2026 Momentum
• 200-day average: $4.24 (far below current price)
• 100-day average: $7.10 (bullish divergence)
• RSI: 48.43 (neutral, but rising)
• MACD: 0.292 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: $9.81 (upper), $8.65 (middle), $7.49 (lower)

Ondas’ technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key support at $9.20 and resistance at $10.53. The Defiance Daily Target 2X Long ONDS ETF (ONDL) offers leveraged exposure, up 23.4% today. For options, ONDS20260109C9.5 and ONDS20260109C10.5 stand out:

• ONDS20260109C9.5
- Strike: $9.50 | IV: 102.32% | Leverage: 21.58% | Delta: 0.636 | Theta: -0.054 | Gamma: 0.2218 | Turnover: 267,199
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.495 per share. This call offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5% move.

• ONDS20260109C10.5
- Strike: $10.50 | IV: 104.93% | Leverage: 21.58% | Delta: 0.409 | Theta: -0.048 | Gamma: 0.2254 | Turnover: 758,243
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.245 per share. This contract balances moderate delta with high gamma, making it responsive to price swings.

Aggressive bulls should consider ONDS20260109C9.5 into a test of $10.53, while ONDS20260109C10.5 offers a safer entry if the stock consolidates near $9.99.

Backtest Ondas Holdings Stock Performance
The backtest of ONDS's performance after a 11% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 50.23%, the 10-Day win rate is 50.23%, and the 30-Day win rate is 55.41%, indicating that the ETF tends to perform well in the short term following the intraday surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 22.84%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that there is potential for significant gains but with some volatility.

Ondas’ 2026 Momentum Unfolds – Key Levels to Watch
Ondas’ 11.12% surge is a clear signal of its 2026 trajectory, driven by $10 million in new orders and a $110 million revenue target. The stock’s technicals and options liquidity suggest a continuation of this momentum, with ONDL and high-leverage calls like ONDS20260109C9.5 offering amplified exposure. However, sector volatility and insider sales (e.g., $6.7M from Ron Stern) warrant caution. Watch for a break above $10.53 to confirm the next leg higher, while LMT’s -0.49% decline highlights sector-wide risks. For now, ONDS20260109C9.5 is the top pick for a 5% upside scenario.