Olaplex tuvo un aumento del 20% debido a los rumores sobre la adquisición por parte de Henkel. ¿Será este el motivo para poner fin a la tendencia bajista del mercado?

Summary
• Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) surges 20.37% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $1.8387
• Bloomberg reports Henkel AG (HNKG_p) in takeover talks, sparking volatility halt
• Advent International, controlling 75% of OLPX, remains key stakeholder
• Technicals show short-term bearish trend but long-term range-bound pattern

Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) is experiencing a dramatic reversal as shares surge 20.37% intraday, driven by unconfirmed reports of a potential takeover by Henkel AG. The stock’s sharp move from a 52-week low of $0.9923 to a 52-week high of $1.8387 underscores the market’s speculative frenzy. With Advent International holding a 75% stake, the outcome of these discussions could redefine OLPX’s trajectory in the volatile personal care sector.

Henkel's Takeover Bid Ignites OLPX Volatility
The surge in OLPX shares is directly tied to Bloomberg reports of Henkel AG’s potential takeover offer. Henkel, a global consumer goods giant, is reportedly in advanced discussions to acquire Olaplex, a company that has lost over 90% of its value since its 2021 IPO. The news triggered a 23% intraday rally, with the stock briefly halting for volatility. While no final agreement has been reached, the prospect of a strategic buyer with Henkel’s global distribution network has reignited investor optimism. Advent International’s controlling stake adds complexity, as the private equity firm’s approval would be critical for any deal to proceed.

Personal Products Sector Mixed as OLPX Surges on Takeover Hopes
The Personal Products sector, led by Procter & Gamble (PG), is underperforming with a -1.09% intraday decline. While OLPX’s rally is driven by takeover speculation, PG’s weakness reflects broader consumer goods sector pressures. The sector’s focus on discretionary spending makes it sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, but OLPX’s unique catalyst—potential acquisition by Henkel—sets it apart from peers. Investors should monitor whether the sector’s underperformance dampens OLPX’s momentum or if the takeover narrative creates a decoupling from broader market trends.

Options Playbook: Leveraging OLPX's Volatility with Strategic Contracts
• 200-day average: 1.30865 (below current price)
• RSI: 52.81 (neutral)
• MACD: 0.0431 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 1.625, above upper band of 1.4538

OLPX’s technicals suggest a breakout from a long-term range, supported by elevated volatility. The stock is trading above its 200-day MA and RSI is approaching overbought territory, indicating potential for further upside if the Henkel deal materializes. Key support levels at 1.3492–1.3564 and resistance at 1.3182–1.3316 are now irrelevant given the intraday high of 1.8387. Aggressive bulls should focus on options with high leverage and moderate delta to capitalize on short-term volatility.

Top Option 1: OLPX20260320C1.5
• Contract Code: OLPX20260320C1.5
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $1.50
• Expiration: 2026-03-20
• Implied Volatility: 76.30% (high)
• Lverage Ratio: 5.48%
• Delta: 0.6792 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.001844 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.6377 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 7,585 (high liquidity)

This call option offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5% upside scenario. With a delta of 0.6792, it tracks the stock’s movement closely, while high gamma ensures sensitivity to price swings. Projected payoff: max(0, 1.70625 - 1.50) = $0.20625 per share, or $206.25 per contract.

Top Option 2: OLPX20260220C2
• Contract Code: OLPX20260220C2
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $2.00
• Expiration: 2026-02-20
• Implied Volatility: 33.88% (moderate)
• Lverage Ratio: 329.00% (high)
• Delta: 0.0618 (low)
• Theta: -0.000355 (low decay)
• Gamma: 0.6229 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 2,392 (high liquidity)

This out-of-the-money call offers explosive leverage (329%) for a 5% upside. While delta is low, the high gamma and moderate IV make it a speculative play for a sharp move. Projected payoff: max(0, 1.70625 - 2.00) = $0 (no intrinsic value), but gamma could amplify gains if the stock gaps up.

Hook: If Henkel’s bid gains clarity, OLPX20260320C1.5 offers a balanced bet, while OLPX20260220C2 is a high-risk, high-reward play for aggressive bulls.

Backtest Olaplex Holdings Stock Performance
The backtest of OLX Performance after a 20% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. The 3-Day win rate is 40.41%, the 10-Day win rate is 41.99%, and the 30-Day win rate is 41.08%. However, the returns over these periods are negative, with a 3-Day return of -1.23%, a 10-Day return of -1.79%, and a 30-Day return of -6.08%. The maximum return during the backtest was -0.28%, which occurred on the first day of the backtest, indicating that the strategy of holding OLX after a 20% intraday surge is not consistently profitable in the short term.

Act Now: OLPX's Takeover Drama Could Define Its Near-Term Trajectory
Olaplex’s 20% surge is a high-stakes gamble on Henkel’s potential acquisition, but the stock’s technicals and options activity suggest the market is pricing in a deal. While Procter & Gamble (PG) underperforms in the sector, OLPX’s unique catalyst could decouple it from broader market trends. Investors should monitor Henkel’s next steps and Advent International’s stance, as the private equity firm’s approval is pivotal. For now, the OLPX20260320C1.5 and OLPX20260220C2 options offer strategic entry points to capitalize on the volatility. Watch for a breakdown below $1.35 or a regulatory green light for the Henkel deal—either could trigger a sharp reversal.