¿Es Okta una compra con gran valor o una oportunidad perdida en la seguridad cibernética?

The cybersecurity sector has long been a magnet for speculative bets, but few stories have been as volatile as Okta's post-2023 recovery. A string of high-profile breaches between 2022 and 2023-ranging from phishing campaigns to compromised code repositories-shattered investor confidence, eroding $2 billion in market value overnight. Yet, as of late 2025, Okta's financials tell a different story: revenue growth of 12% year-over-year in Q3 2026, a raised full-year guidance to $2.9 billion, and a valuation that appears both inflated and undervalued depending on the metric according to Q3 2026 financial results. For investors, the question is whether Okta's post-crisis performance justifies its current multiples or if the company remains a cautionary tale of overpaying for a tarnished brand.

The Cost of Breach and the Path to Recovery

Okta's security woes began in earnest in 2022 with the Lapsus$ breach, which exploited a third-party contractor's credentials to access internal systems. By October 2023, the company faced its most severe incident yet: a breach of its customer support system that exposed user data across 134 organizations. The fallout was immediate. Share prices plummeted, and the company's reputation as a "trusted" identity provider was called into question according to market analysis. Yet Okta's response-resetting credentials, enhancing monitoring, and launching "Program Bedrock," a 90-day security overhaul-demonstrated a commitment to remediation according to security reports. Customer retention rates, while pressured, held steady in the mid-90% range, suggesting that clients valued Okta's core offerings despite the risks according to customer feedback.

Financial Resilience in a Challenging Sector

Okta's fiscal 2026 results reveal a company regaining momentum. Q3 revenue of $742 million, up 12% year-over-year, and a 17% increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO) to $4.3 billion according to Q3 financial results underscore its ability to retain and grow its customer base. The company's guidance hike to $2.9 billion in annual revenue reflects confidence in its market position, particularly as AI-driven demand for identity and access management (IAM) solutions surges according to market research. However, these gains come against a backdrop of a broader cybersecurity sector that has underperformed in 2025, with many peers struggling to meet growth expectations according to industry analysis.

Valuation: A Tale of Two Metrics

Okta's valuation remains a paradox. On one hand, its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 5.8x is above the S&P 500 average of 4.56x but below its own five-year average of 11.65x according to financial data. On the other, its enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple of 134.3x dwarfs industry benchmarks, reflecting a premium paid for its leadership in IAM and recurring revenue model according to valuation reports. A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests Okta is trading at a 26.3% discount to its intrinsic value of $108.99 per share, hinting at undervaluation according to financial analysis. Yet its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 84.3x, far exceeding the IT industry average of 28.1x, raises concerns about overvaluation according to market data.

Comparisons with peers like CyberArk and Ping Identity highlight the tension. CyberArk, with a P/E of 105.6x and a P/S of 22.1x, trades at similarly lofty multiples despite 20% year-over-year revenue growth according to valuation metrics. Ping Identity, while growing its ARR by 31% in 2024, carries a negative EBITDA and a P/S of 5.05x, suggesting a more cautious outlook according to company reports. Okta's position between these extremes-high growth but high risk-makes its valuation a matter of perspective.

The Long Game: Growth vs. Trust

Okta's future hinges on two factors: its ability to maintain growth in a sector increasingly reliant on IAM solutions and its capacity to rebuild trust. The company's strategic acquisitions (e.g., Axiom Security, Auth0) and AI-driven product innovations position it to capitalize on the shift to cloud-native security according to asset analysis. However, repeated breaches have eroded customer confidence, with many organizations re-evaluating their reliance on identity providers according to security reports. Competitors like CyberArk, with its 4.5-star Gartner rating, and Ping Identity, praised for ease of deployment, are closing the gap according to market reviews.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet

Okta's post-2023 trajectory is a study in contrasts. Its financials suggest a resilient business with strong growth potential, while its valuation metrics reflect both optimism and skepticism. For investors, the key lies in reconciling these duality. If Okta can sustain its revenue growth and solidify its security posture-proving that its "Program Bedrock" initiatives are more than PR-its current multiples may appear justified. But in a sector where trust is currency, the cost of another breach could be catastrophic.

In the end, Okta is neither a deep-value buy nor a clear missed opportunity. It is a high-risk, high-reward proposition for those willing to bet on its ability to outgrow its past.