Oklo's 2% Drop: Profit-Taking After the Meta Surge

Oklo stock is taking a breather. On Monday, shares fell about 2.1% on no apparent news, marking a tactical pause after a 35% surge last week. This is classic profit-taking following an explosive run, with the catalyst being the company's major deal with tech giant Meta.

The rally was fueled by a significant announcement: Meta will purchase power from a planned 1.2-gigawatt nuclear project in Ohio to run its AI data centers. Oklo says the Meta funding will be used to secure nuclear fuel and advance the project's first phase. While the financial details remain vague, the strategic alignment with a major tech spender provided a powerful near-term boost.

This recent volatility is a pattern for Oklo. The stock had already experienced a 46% plunge between November and December after a stunning rally of over 700% by mid-October 2025. That earlier tumble was driven by profit-taking, a major equity offering, and high-profile skepticism. The core question now is whether Monday's dip is just a routine pause in a bullish trend or the start of a more significant reversal. The setup hinges on whether the Meta deal's momentum can overcome the stock's history of sharp swings.

The Meta Deal Mechanics: Upfront Cash vs. Distant Production

The Meta deal provides immediate liquidity but a distant payoff. The key terms are straightforward: Meta will prepay for power from a planned 1.2-gigawatt nuclear plant in Ohio. Oklo says it will use that cash "to secure nuclear fuel and advance Phase 1 of the project." This is a direct injection of capital to de-risk the early stages of a complex build.

The critical disconnect is timing. Oklo does not expect to begin power production until 2030, and it won't reach full output capacity before 2034. The prepayment is essentially a long-term contract for electricity that won't exist for nearly a decade. This creates a classic valuation tension: the upfront cash is real and useful now, but the bulk of the project's value is locked in a future that is highly uncertain.

This setup underscores Oklo's financial reality. The company has retained earnings of $0, meaning it has never generated a profit to reinvest. It is entirely reliant on external capital to fund operations and development. The Meta deal, therefore, is not just a strategic win-it's a vital source of near-term fuel to keep the project moving forward. The immediate benefit is clear, but the long-term promise remains a multi-year bet on execution and regulatory approval.

The Tactical Setup: Key Uncertainties and Near-Term Catalysts

The immediate risk/reward hinges on two moving parts: the opaque terms of the Meta prepayment and the company's ability to manage its capital raise. The primary uncertainty is the prepayment amount and its structure. Oklo says Meta will prepay for power, but it doesn't say how much money Meta will pay. Given that the plant won't produce electricity until 2030, it's logical to assume the rate is discounted. The company's own calculation suggests the annual value of the 1.2-gigawatt project could be around $1.3 billion. Yet, paying that full freight upfront for power a decade away seems unlikely. The real cash benefit is there, but the exact size and terms remain a black box, creating a lingering doubt that could cap sentiment.

The next major catalyst is the company's March 23, 2026 earnings report. This will be a key inflection point for sentiment. With Oklo having retained earnings of $0, the report will offer a clear look at how the Meta cash is being deployed and whether the company is making tangible progress on Phase 1. Any update on project timelines or cost management will be scrutinized. A miss on execution milestones could quickly reverse the recent rally, while solid progress could provide a fresh tailwind.

A more immediate, and potentially negative, catalyst is the company's $1.5 billion at-the-market equity offering. This program allows Oklo to sell shares at its discretion to fund operations. While it provides a crucial capital lifeline, it also introduces the constant risk of share dilution. The market will be watching for any signs that the company is leaning heavily on this offering to cover cash burn, which could pressure the stock. The tactical play is to see if the Meta prepayment reduces the need for equity sales, thereby limiting near-term dilution.

In short, the setup is a classic event-driven trade. The Meta deal provides a tangible, if distant, value anchor. The March earnings report offers a near-term test of execution. And the equity offering looms as a potential overhang. The stock's recent dip may be a tactical pause, but the next few weeks will reveal whether the underlying momentum can hold.