La crisis del exceso de oferta de petróleo: ganadores y perdedores en un mundo con un precio de equilibrio de $60

The global oil market in 2025 is grappling with a paradox: record production capacity coexists with a fragile demand outlook, creating a surplus that is reshaping investment strategies and asset allocations. With oil prices hovering near $60 per barrel-a critical breakeven threshold for many non-OPEC+ producers-the energy sector is witnessing a seismic shift. Investors and energy firms are recalibrating their portfolios, favoring low-cost producers, renewables, and ESG-aligned assets while sidelining high-cost oil projects and carbon-intensive infrastructure. This reallocation reflects both market forces and geopolitical dynamics, as OPEC+ struggles to maintain influence and the U.S. under a pro-oil Trump administration seeks to expand output.

Winners: Low-Cost Producers and the Energy Transition

The $60-per-barrel benchmark has become a litmus test for economic viability in the oil industry. According to a report by the IEA, non-OPEC+ nations are increasing supply by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, driven by low-cost producers such as the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina. These countries are leveraging advanced technologies and favorable geology to maintain profitability even at lower prices. For instance, Brazil and Guyana have emerged as key players in offshore oil production, offering "sustainable supply growth independent of traditional coordination mechanisms". Their ability to scale output without relying on OPEC+ agreements signals a shift toward a more decentralized and competitive oil market.

Meanwhile, the energy transition is accelerating capital flows into renewables. Global energy investment reached $3.3 trillion in 2025, with $2.2 trillion allocated to renewables, nuclear, grids, and energy efficiency-double the amount invested in fossil fuels. This trend is driven by surging electricity demand from industrialization, electric vehicles, and AI-driven data centers. As stated by TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne, "Production from non-OPEC regions may decline when prices fall to $60 per barrel," but the same threshold is proving insufficient to justify new oil projects, further tilting investment toward cleaner alternatives.

Losers: High-Cost Producers and Carbon-Intensive Assets

Conversely, high-cost oil producers are facing existential challenges. The IEA forecasts an oversupply of 1.4 million bpd in 2025, driven by non-OPEC+ supply growth outpacing demand. For producers with breakeven prices above $60, this surplus threatens profitability. Upstream oil investment is expected to decline by 6% in 2025 as companies abandon projects that no longer justify their capital expenditures. The U.S. shale industry, once a symbol of energy resilience, is now prioritizing cash flow extraction over reinvestment, reflecting a broader industry shift toward capital discipline.

Carbon-intensive assets are also losing favor. Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations are reshaping investment strategies, with energy companies increasingly favoring shareholder returns over production expansion. This shift is compounded by geopolitical tensions, including trade wars and sanctions, which are disrupting traditional energy trade routes and forcing firms to reconfigure supply chains.

Strategic Shifts: OPEC+, Geopolitics, and the U.S. Response

OPEC+ remains a pivotal but increasingly strained actor. The alliance's recent decision to increase production by 411,000 bpd reflects its struggle to balance market share with the need to stabilize prices amid surging non-OPEC+ output. However, internal challenges-such as Russia and Venezuela's non-compliance with production targets-threaten to exacerbate the surplus. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has added another layer of complexity. A pro-oil agenda, including tax incentives and relaxed drilling restrictions, is expected to boost U.S. production by 300,000 bpd to a record 13.5 million bpd. Yet, even this growth is constrained by economic realities, as breakeven prices for many U.S. producers remain above $60.

Geopolitical risks further complicate the outlook. Sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, and Iraq could disrupt supply, while instability in the Strait of Hormuz poses a persistent threat to energy security. However, markets have grown "somewhat immune" to such disruptions, reflecting a broader normalization of volatility. The IEA projects that global oil prices will remain range-bound between $63 and $78 per barrel in 2025, with an average of $65.

Conclusion: A New Energy Paradigm

The $60-per-barrel breakeven point has become a fulcrum for strategic reallocation in energy markets. Winners are those who can operate at scale and with low costs-whether through offshore oil or renewable energy-while losers are high-cost producers and carbon-intensive assets that struggle to adapt. For investors, the lesson is clear: the future belongs to flexibility, innovation, and alignment with the energy transition. As the oil oversupply crisis unfolds, the winners will be those who anticipate the shift and act decisively.