Oil Majors' Big Bet on Biofuels: Over 40 Projects by 2030, Rystad Says

In the rapidly evolving energy landscape, oil majors are making a significant pivot towards lower-carbon alternatives. According to Rystad Energy, over 40 biofuel projects are expected to be completed by 2030, signaling a strategic shift in the industry. This move aligns with the global energy transition, as we approach a peak in global CO2 emissions around 2027 and low-carbon investments surpassing oil and gas by 2025.

So, what's driving this trend, and how will it impact the financial performance and valuation of oil majors? Let's dive into the details.



Firstly, biofuels offer a practical solution for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and heavy-duty transportation, where electrification is challenging. By investing in biofuels, oil majors aim to reduce their Scope 3 emissions, which account for the majority of their carbon footprint, and maintain their market share in the evolving energy landscape.

The primary feedstocks for these biofuel projects include agricultural crops like corn and soybeans, as well as waste materials like municipal solid waste and algae. Technologies employed range from fermentation and enzymatic hydrolysis to gasification and pyrolysis. These processes differ from traditional refining methods, which primarily use crude oil as feedstock and involve distillation and cracking.



Oil majors are investing in advanced biofuel technologies, such as second-generation biofuels, biojet fuel, and green hydrogen. These investments align with their long-term sustainability goals, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and diversify their energy portfolios.

Regulatory and policy incentives are also driving oil majors to invest in biofuels. The EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) mandates a 32% renewable energy target by 2030, with biofuels playing a significant role. The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requires the blending of biofuels into the nation's fuel supply. In Asia, countries like China and India are promoting biofuels to reduce reliance on oil imports and meet their climate goals.

As oil majors integrate biofuels into their existing infrastructure and operations, they will repurpose refineries to process bio-based feedstocks alongside traditional crude oil. This will enable them to produce biofuels like biodiesel and renewable diesel, which can be seamlessly integrated into the existing fuel supply chain. Oil majors will also leverage their extensive distribution networks to transport and market these biofuels.

The expected emissions reductions and economic benefits of these biofuel projects for oil majors will contribute to the global energy transition. By 2025, low-carbon investments are expected to surpass oil and gas investments, reaching $760 billion. Biofuels, as a low-carbon alternative, can significantly reduce emissions in the transportation sector, which accounts for 45% of global tonne mileage.

In conclusion, oil majors' big bet on biofuels signals a strategic shift towards sustainability and risk mitigation. With over 40 projects planned by 2030, they aim to reduce emissions and diversify revenue streams. This move aligns with the global energy transition and supports a balanced portfolio that combines growth and value stocks. As the energy landscape evolves, oil majors are positioning themselves to play a significant role in the lower-carbon future.