Oil Daily | Petrobras to Boost Output Amid Reduced CapEx; OPEC Cuts 2024 Demand Forecast

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

Israel is considering a retaliatory strike on Iran's energy infrastructure after an Iranian missile attack. While listening to U.S. advice, Israel will decide based on national interests, focusing on military targets rather than oil facilities to avoid political interference in U.S. elections. Analysts assess the potential impact on Middle East oil supply.

Petrobras plans to maximize oil extraction from existing fields and seek new deposits to sustain output. Despite a reduced capital expenditure plan, Petrobras aims for increased production, adding new platforms and wells. The International Energy Agency forecasts a significant rise in Brazil's oil production next year.

After a three-year hiatus due to theft, Nigeria's Belemaoil has resumed operations at Oil Mining Lease 55. Despite challenges, Nigeria faces massive oil theft losses. Recent developments include international firms exiting Nigeria and new explorations being considered under the Petroleum Industry Act.

Algeria is preparing a new oil and gas licensing round, attracting interest from major international firms like ExxonMobil and Chevron. Algeria aims to boost foreign investment in its hydrocarbon sector, focusing on gas exports to Europe amid reduced Russian supply.

【Latest Oil Policies】

OPEC's latest report shows a continued downward revision of global oil demand growth for 2024, largely due to reduced expectations for Chinese demand. This follows disappointing Chinese consumer prices and decreasing imports amid refinery maintenance, impacting overall oil demand forecasts.

China continues to build coal-fired power plants abroad despite a pledge to cease financing such projects. New coal capacity has been added, although project cancellations have slowed. China must increase cancellations to meet its environmental promises.

【Industry News】

China's imports of coal reached a record high in September, driven by rising domestic consumption and lower international prices. Despite growing renewable energy capacity, China expands its coal-fired power to ensure energy security.

【Company News】

Petrobras is lowering its 2025 capital expenditure to make it more financially realistic while increasing overall investment plans for 2024-2028. The company's strategic focus includes boosting Brazil's oil production and exploring new natural gas opportunities off Colombia's coast.

【Others】

China's military drills in the Taiwan Strait have heightened geopolitical tensions, drawing criticism from the U.S. and EU. The exercises are seen as a response to Taiwanese independence assertions and aim to showcase military readiness, although efforts are made to avoid escalating tensions in the U.S. political landscape.