Oil Daily | OPEC to Increase Output Amid Uncertainty Over Russian Supply and Iran Sanctions Impact

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】

Traders are closely watching developments in the Ukraine war, as a resolution could enhance Russian crude supply. The potential easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, alongside OPEC's decision to increase production, could contribute to challenges in aligning supply with demand.

OPEC plans to modestly roll back output cuts in April, adding 138,000 barrels daily. However, there are doubts about members adhering to compensation plans for overproduction. U.S. sanctions on Iran have led to more crude buying, with speculators increasing net long positions in Brent crude.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

Iraq is procuring floating regasification terminals to replace Iranian gas imports amidst renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran. The U.S. denied extending Iraq's waiver to purchase Iranian electricity, potentially prompting Iraqi oil field operators to reduce gas flaring for power generation.

【Latest Oil Policies】

President Trump reinstated a "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran to push for new nuclear deal negotiations. This campaign aims to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero, potentially destabilizing the global oil market.

【Company News】

Sinopec reported a net profit decline of 16.8% in 2024, attributed to lower oil prices and the rise of electric vehicles. Despite the challenges, Sinopec managed to improve profitability from the previous year, partially due to fluctuating oil prices and demand recovery post-pandemic.

Sinopec noted a slight decline in China's refined petroleum product demand by 1.9% in 2023. With China leading in electric vehicle adoption, Sinopec forecasts oil demand peaking at 16 million barrels daily by 2027, a year later than CNPC's prediction.