Oil Daily | OPEC Debates Q2 2025 Production Amid Trump-Related Uncertainties and Internal Divisions

【Latest Oil Policies】

UK’s energy secretary is set to visit China to discuss alternative energy sources, excluding nuclear energy, as the UK seeks closer ties with China. The Labour government aims to mend relations with China, vital for its ambitious energy transition goals, relying on China's cost-effective renewable components.

Italy plans to announce a $3.14 billion aid package to support households and small businesses burdened by high energy costs, as part of measures expected to last three months. The government anticipates energy prices will decline post-winter, amid talks of a Ukraine ceasefire, potentially easing energy prices further.

French utility Engie may reallocate capital away from the US due to uncertainty in US tariff and clean energy policies under President Trump. The administration’s potential rollback of incentives and loans for clean energy projects has prompted Engie to reconsider its investments, citing regulatory ambiguities as investment hurdles.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

Alberta projects a 2025 deficit of C$5.2 billion, contrasting with the previous year’s surplus, primarily due to oil price impacts, Trump’s tariffs, and tax cuts. The province aims to strengthen its economy beyond energy to weather potential trade conflicts, given Canada's reliance on US crude exports.

OPEC is deliberating its Q2 2025 oil production plans amidst Trump-linked uncertainties. Internal divides, particularly between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, affect decisions on whether to increase production, as global tariffs and geopolitical tensions complicate OPEC's supply-demand management strategies.

Russian oil companies are set to resume projects in Kurdistan following a resolution of disputes between the Iraqi federal government and the Kurdish authorities. This development will enable Russia to restart investments in the region, potentially resuming significant oil exports via the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

【Industry News】

Pemex reported a significant Q4 2024 loss of 190.5 billion pesos, attributed to rising operational costs, asset devaluations, and currency losses. Despite slight revenue growth, Pemex struggles with debt, declining production, and reduced crude exports, worsening its financial challenges without external investment.

【Company News】

Eni SpA reported a 46% drop in Q4 2024 adjusted net profit, missing forecasts due to lower oil prices and refining margins. Despite increased production, the chemical division suffered losses. Eni's transition efforts focus on leveraging technological expertise for sustainable growth amid industry-wide headwinds.