Oil Daily | Oil Prices Surge on Hurricane Francine Disruptions; Libya and Venezuela Production Challenges Persist

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】

Crude oil production will continue to outpace demand in 2025 despite OPEC caps, with sluggish demand growth in China and the U.S. Recent increases in U.S. gasoline and middle distillate inventories are bearish signals for oil prices, though seasonal demand decline is expected.

Oil prices climbed nearly three percent due to fears of supply disruptions from Hurricane Francine, which prompted major operators to shut in some production in the Gulf of Mexico. Despite the EIA inventory report showing increased stockpiles, hurricane concerns dominated trading sentiments.

Falling oil and gasoline prices have slowed annual inflation rates. Gasoline prices averaged $3.253 per gallon, down from the previous month and year. Oil prices edged up as several Gulf of Mexico producers suspended operations due to Hurricane Francine, leading to significant production losses.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

Donald Trump has considered moving to Venezuela if he loses the 2024 election. His presidency imposed severe sanctions on Venezuela, significantly impacting its crude oil production. Despite some sanctions being lifted and increased exports, production remains below 1 million barrels per day.

Libya's crude oil exports plummeted to 194,000 bpd due to a political standoff between rival governments. The National Oil Corporation canceled some cargoes without declaring force majeure on all exports. Production and exports were halted due to political disagreements over the Central Bank of Libya leadership.

【Latest Oil Policies】

Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested limiting exports of commodities like uranium, nickel, and titanium in retaliation for Western sanctions. The EU has imposed sanctions on Russian gas, preventing re-exporting Russian LNG and banning EU involvement in new LNG projects, which could disrupt Russia's export model.

【Industry News】

Trillions of U.S. dollars are being "greenwashed" by banks through loans and credit lines to fossil fuel subsidiaries in secrecy jurisdictions, a new study by NGO Tax Justice Network revealed. This practice obscures the true scale of banking support for fossil fuels, with 68% of such financing directed to subsidiaries in secrecy jurisdictions.

【Company News】

Saudi Aramco signed agreements with China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Group to advance talks on cooperation in refining and petrochemical sectors. The deals involve potential joint ventures, stake acquisitions, and expansions in both Saudi Arabia and China, part of Aramco’s strategy to expand its international downstream presence.