Oil Daily | IEA Predicts Peak Oil Demand by 2030 Amid Rising Non-OPEC Supply and Easing Prices

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】 The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that demand for oil, natural gas, and coal will peak by 2030, as the world transitions to the Age of Electricity. Despite a shift to low-emission energy sources, the IEA highlights that net zero goals are still distant, with oil and LNG oversupply expected to ease prices. The IEA reports that global oil demand growth has slowed, particularly in China. However, oil supply from non-OPEC producers is rising, with the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, and Canada contributing significantly. Despite security concerns, the market remains well-supplied, projecting a surplus next year. 【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】 Venezuela's oil production has increased amid U.S. sanctions and limited investment, with output rising steadily from 750,000 bpd to over 800,000 bpd this year. Despite production growth, the U.S. maintains sanctions following contested elections in Venezuela. Russia's crude oil exports via sea have reached a three-month high due to seasonal refinery maintenance. Export volumes have increased, and revenues have risen due to higher oil prices. Maintenance at major refineries will leave more crude available for export. 【Latest Oil Policies】 Japan plans to enhance its hydrogen strategy, aiming to boost supply to 12 million tonnes by 2040. This initiative aligns with global competition in the hydrogen market and aims to achieve carbon neutrality by relying on hydrogen and ammonia as key energy sources. India plans to invest $109 billion in upgrading its power transmission system to support renewable energy integration. The National Electricity Plan envisions significant capacity additions, aiming for 500 GW of renewable energy by 2030, aligning with India's carbon reduction goals. 【Industry News】 TEPCO, in partnership with Pertamina, aims to produce hydrogen in Indonesia using geothermal power by 2027, aligning with Japan's hydrogen strategy. Meanwhile, Japan plans a $113 billion investment in hydrogen development over the next 15 years. Rosatom will present a strategic nuclear development plan through 2045, aiming to expand nuclear power capacity by 28.5 GW. The plan includes retiring older reactors and increasing nuclear power's share in Russia’s energy mix from 11.69% to 15.3% by 2042. 【Company News】 Sinopec has increased production at China's Jiyang shale field to 1,600 tons per day, aiming for annual production of half a million tons. This effort is part of China's strategy to boost domestic oil and gas production and reduce reliance on imports. US oil producers are hedging future sales to lock in revenue amid recent crude price surges. Rising geopolitical tensions and market forecasts of a bearish oil market for 2025 have driven this hedging activity, providing a cushion for future output increases. 【Others】 BMW warns that an EU ban on gasoline and diesel cars by 2035 is unrealistic due to slow EV sales and competition from Chinese manufacturers. European automakers call for urgent measures to support the transition and prevent industry shrinkage. Permian gas prices improved with the new Matterhorn pipeline, but maintenance on existing pipelines is expected to impact prices. The pipeline, flowing at least 650 MMcf/d, has provided relief to West Texas' strained capacity, but future maintenance could affect pricing.