Oil Daily | China's Crude Surplus Drop Fuels Bearish Sentiment Amid Global Oil Market Uncertainty

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】

China’s crude oil surplus decreased from 930,000 barrels daily in September to 500,000 bpd in October. This decline, along with reduced crude oil imports and refinery run rates, has bolstered bearish sentiment in oil markets. China's overall crude exports fell by 3.4% compared to the previous year, further contributing to concerns over demand growth. Despite a 2.5% increase in domestic oil production, the overall oil available to refiners decreased, highlighting the impact of potentially overestimated demand.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

The Biden administration reportedly allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-manufactured long-range missiles against Russian territory, escalating tensions. Russia warned that this action would constitute significant escalation. Analysts suggest this could impact oil markets, possibly causing further elevation if Ukraine targets more oil infrastructure, though current Russian oil exports remain largely unaffected.

【Latest Oil Policies】

Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy, is nominated to lead the Department of Energy in the Trump administration. Wright critiques the current energy transition narrative, advocating for energy realism focusing on supply security over emission reductions. He argues that subsidies for renewable energy could increase electricity prices and that hydrocarbons will dominate energy supply for decades. Wright is set to join a new federal Council of National Energy, aiming to revamp U.S. energy policies by reducing regulations and enhancing private sector investment.