Oil Daily | Baghdad-Kurdistan Oil Dispute Intensifies, Impacting Regional Stability and Revenue

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】

Utilities across the EU increased electricity output from gas and coal plants by 13% in H1 2025 due to the coldest winter in four years and lower wind speeds, leading to a 9% rise in emissions from the power sector. Solar became the largest electricity source in June.

Power utilities in the U.S. applied for $29 billion in price hikes due to increased demand from AI data centers. This surge represents a 142% increase from H1 2024. Regulators are imposing financial burdens on large industrial consumers, as AI centers raise energy consumption concerns.

Grid operators in Europe face a €250 billion investment shortfall to match energy transition plans, BCG reports. TSOs must invest €345 billion over the next three years, triple the previous five years' investment. Financing challenges include limitations on raising debt or equity, and balancing consumer costs with investor returns.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

The ongoing dispute between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government over oil exports and salaries has intensified. Despite progress, mistrust and political resistance hinder resolution. The stalled exports impact regional economic stability and deprive Erbil of significant revenue.

Turkish energy firms will explore for oil and gas offshore Pakistan, deepening the strategic energy partnership. This initiative follows a joint agreement on exploration and leverages Turkey's expertise in expanding international partnerships in oil and gas sectors.

【Latest Oil Policies】

OPEC denied accreditation for major media outlets at its Vienna meeting, sparking transparency concerns. The decision follows past criticism, and Bloomberg noted previous refusals in 2023. Market transparency remains a priority despite accreditation restrictions.

【Industry News】

The UK government plans to abandon zonal pricing in its wholesale electricity market following industry backlash. The reform, which could hinder renewable energy investments, faced opposition for potential negative impacts on energy bills and investments.

【Company News】

Saudi Aramco is in talks to acquire 2 Mtpa of LNG from Commonwealth LNG, expanding its U.S. market presence. The agreement would enhance Aramco's LNG portfolio and tap into rising global demand, marking a strategic shift from crude oil exports.

Standard Chartered challenges the notion of phantom barrels in non-OECD crude markets, citing balanced global oil supply. As OPEC rolls back cuts, the bank predicts a near-balanced market by Q4 2025 and notes disappointing non-OPEC supply growth.

SABIC is considering listing National Industrial Gases Company to optimize its portfolio amid reduced profitability. The potential IPO aligns with SABIC's strategic focus and could enhance its financial position. Recent losses reflect global economic uncertainties impacting demand.

Uganda National Oil Company seeks a joint venture partner for exploring the Kasuruban block, aiming for first oil by 2026. UNOC's involvement in significant oil projects positions it for growth, with EACOP shareholders driving regional oil exports from Uganda.