Oil Daily | Asian Oil Imports Decline; India's Demand Growth Surges Amid Canada's Energy Policy Debate

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】

Crude oil imports into Asia declined by 1.4% last year, marking the first drop since the pandemic lockdowns, primarily due to a reduction in Chinese imports. This decline, although not drastic, is significant given China's influence on the oil market. India is set to surpass China in driving global oil demand growth, with a projected 3.2% increase in 2024. This growth is attributed to India's expanding refining capacity, even as much of the additional output is expected to be exported.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

Reports indicate that Canadian oil producers are selling their products to U.S. refiners at a discount, a situation attributed to Canadian political decisions rather than U.S. buyers. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre criticized Canadian politics for this and expressed intentions to improve the situation if elected, aiming to bolster the local energy industry.

【Latest Oil Policies】

Canada's energy transition policies, including carbon taxes and an emissions cap on the oil and gas industry, have faced criticism and political opposition. Trudeau's government has focused on strict emissions standards, whereas the Conservative opposition is advocating for a stronger local energy industry. The Conservatives are keen on negotiating favorable energy deals with the U.S., highlighting a potential shift in Canada's approach to energy policy.

【Industry News】

China's recent stimulus measures, including the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds, aim to boost consumer spending and oil demand. Analysts suggest this could lead to stronger oil market performance, despite a comfortable oil balance for 2025. The potential tightening of sanctions on Iran under a Trump presidency could further impact the market by curbing Iranian oil production, possibly prompting OPEC to adjust production cuts.

【Others】

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is reportedly considering resignation amid criticism from both the opposition and his own party. Recent polls and by-elections suggest his Liberal party may face significant losses to the Conservatives in the upcoming election. This political shift could influence Canada's future energy policies and international dealings.