U.S. officials warn that if Donald Trump orders strikes on Iran, Tehran could retaliate through proxies such as Hezbollah or Al Qaeda against American targets abroad

U.S. officials warn that if Donald Trump orders strikes on Iran, Tehran could retaliate through proxies such as Hezbollah or Al Qaeda against American targets abroad

U.S. Officials Warn of Proxy Retaliation if Trump Orders Strikes on Iran

U.S. and Western intelligence agencies have raised concerns that Iran could direct proxies such as Hezbollah, Al Qaeda affiliates, or the Houthi movement to conduct retaliatory attacks against American interests abroad if President Donald Trump authorizes military strikes according to U.S. officials. While no specific plots have been confirmed, increased "chatter" in intelligence intercepts suggests heightened planning activity. Analysts note that Iran's network of proxies, including groups in Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq, has historically been used to escalate regional tensions and inflict costs on U.S. and Israeli targets as documented.

The potential for proxy attacks adds complexity to the Trump administration's war planning, as Iran's leadership may perceive a U.S. military campaign as an existential threat. Colin P. Clarke, director of the Soufan Center, stated that Iran could exploit proxies to "raise costs" for any U.S. offensive according to analysis. Historical precedents, such as the 2023–2024 conflicts between Iran, Israel, and U.S. forces, demonstrate how proxy actions—such as Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping or Hezbollah strikes on Israeli and U.S. bases—can destabilize regional and global markets according to CFR analysis.

Economic and financial implications are significant. A renewed conflict could disrupt oil supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially driving up energy prices and exacerbating inflationary pressures. Insurance markets may also face increased risk premiums for assets in the Middle East and Europe. Additionally, U.S. sanctions and military actions have historically strained Iran's economy, which relies heavily on oil exports and illicit financial networks as reported.

Iran has repeatedly warned of "dire consequences" if attacked, with state media and military officials emphasizing readiness for another round of strikes according to Iranian state media. Regional allies in Iran's "axis of resistance," including Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis, have also signaled potential retaliation against U.S. and Israeli interests according to regional reports.

Investors and financial institutions are advised to monitor developments closely, as geopolitical volatility could impact trade routes, commodity markets, and global risk perceptions. The Trump administration's balancing act between military posturing and diplomatic efforts—such as renewed nuclear negotiations—remains uncertain, further complicating market outlooks according to conflict analysis.