Office Properties (OPI) Surges 28% Amid Bankruptcy Rumors and Debt Crisis: What’s Fueling the Volatility?

Summary
• Office Properties Income Trust (OPI) surges 28.2% intraday to $0.4564, defying a $2.2 52-week high and $0.175 low.
• Turnover hits 14.5 million shares, with a dynamic PE of -0.19, signaling speculative frenzy.
• Recent news hints at potential bankruptcy amid $900M debt maturities and liquidity crunch.
• Analysts at B. Riley cut price targets, while institutional investors like MAI Capital raise stakes.
Office Properties Income Trust (OPI) is trading in a frenzy as investors grapple with conflicting signals: a 28.2% intraday surge amid dire financial warnings. The stock’s sharp move follows reports of potential bankruptcy filings and a $900M debt overhang, sparking a tug-of-war between speculative bets and fundamental concerns. With turnover at 20% of the float and options volatility spiking, the REIT’s survival hinges on its ability to restructure or attract capital.

Bankruptcy Fears and Debt Overhang Ignite Short-Term Volatility
The 28.2% intraday surge in OPI is a direct reaction to conflicting news flows. While the company faces a $900M debt maturity over 2026-2027 and dwindling liquidity ($90M cash as of June 2025), recent reports of potential bankruptcy filings have triggered a speculative frenzy. Short-sellers initially drove the stock below $0.35, but a last-minute buy-in by institutional investors (e.g., MAI Capital) and a B. Riley price target cut to $17 (from prior highs) created a short-covering rally. The move reflects a classic 'short squeeze' scenario, where bearish bets are unwound as rumors of restructuring or asset sales gain traction.

REIT Sector Mixed as BXP Slides, OPI Defies Trend
While OPI’s 28.2% surge defies the broader REIT sector’s struggles, sector leader Boston Properties (BXP) fell 0.21% intraday, highlighting divergent investor sentiment. BXP’s decline underscores ongoing pressure on office REITs amid remote work trends, whereas OPI’s rally suggests speculative bets on a potential restructuring or asset sale. The contrast reflects OPI’s unique position: a high-risk, high-reward play on debt restructuring versus BXP’s more stable but lower-growth office portfolio.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in OPI’s High-Risk Trade
• 200-day average: $0.5367 (above current price); RSI: 55.71 (neutral); MACD: 0.0496 (bullish divergence).
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $0.4564, above the middle band ($0.364), suggesting short-term overbought conditions.
• Key levels: Support at $0.2314 (30D), resistance at $0.5 (strike price for active options).
• Leveraged ETF: N/A (data missing).

Top Options Picks:
• OPI20251017C0.5 (Call, $0.5 strike, Oct 17 expiry):
- IV: 270.49% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.5869 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0021 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 1.2289 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 7,241 contracts (liquid)
- Leverage ratio: 4.22% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0.4792 → $0.0292 profit per contract.
This call option is ideal for aggressive bulls betting on a short-term bounce above $0.5, leveraging high gamma and liquidity.
• OPI20251219C0.5 (Call, $0.5 strike, Dec 19 expiry):
- IV: 189.78% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: 0.6343 (higher sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0007 (lower time decay)
- Gamma: 0.8567 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 2,012 contracts (liquid)
- Leverage ratio: 3.09% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0.4792 → $0.0292 profit per contract.
This longer-dated call offers a safer play on a potential $0.5 breakout, with lower time decay and decent liquidity.

Trading Insight: Aggressive bulls should target OPI20251017C0.5 for a short-term breakout above $0.5, while OPI20251219C0.5 suits a more conservative, time-insensitive approach. Both contracts benefit from high gamma and liquidity, but the October expiry offers higher leverage for a quick move.

Backtest Office Properties Stock Performance
I tried to run the event-backtest exactly as requested (close-to-close rises ≥ 28 % from 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-25). The data search identified only one qualifying date—today, 2025-09-25. Because the event-backtest engine needs at least two observations to calculate variance-based statistics (it divides by n – 1), it threw a “division by zero” error.In short, the data set is too small to generate meaningful post-event statistics.Two possible ways forward:1. Keep the 28 % threshold but widen the look-back period (e.g., start from 2010). 2. Keep 2022-present but lower the daily jump threshold (e.g., ≥ 20 % or ≥ 15 %), which will capture more events and allow a statistically valid back-test.Please let me know which option you prefer—or if you’d like a different adjustment—and I’ll rerun the analysis accordingly.

OPI’s Survival Hinges on Restructuring or Capital Influx: Act Fast
OPI’s 28.2% surge is a fleeting spark in a firestorm of debt and liquidity risks. While the stock’s short-term volatility offers speculative opportunities, the underlying fundamentals—$900M in debt maturities and $90M in cash—suggest a high probability of restructuring or bankruptcy. Investors should monitor the October 17 expiry for OPI20251017C0.5 as a barometer of market sentiment. Meanwhile, sector leader BXP’s -0.21% intraday decline highlights the broader REIT sector’s fragility. For OPI, the key is liquidity: a $0.5 breakout could signal a lifeline, but a breakdown below $0.2314 would confirm insolvency. Watch for asset sales or merger rumors—this is a high-risk, high-reward trade with no middle ground.