Odoxa publishes poll of French voting intentions for 2027

A recent poll conducted by Odoxa indicates that Jordan Bardella, leader of France’s National Rally (RN), is projected to win the 2027 presidential election in all potential scenarios. According to the survey, Bardella would secure between 35% and 36% of the vote in the first round, depending on his opponents, and would go on to win the second round against all major candidates. In hypothetical matchups, Bardella would defeat far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon by a margin of 74% to 26%, centrist Édouard Philippe by 53% to 47%, and socialist Raphaël Glucksmann by 58% to 42% according to the poll. The poll, based on a sample of 1,000 respondents, has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points as reported.

Bardella’s potential candidacy is likely to be uncontested within the RN, as the party’s former leader, Marine Le Pen, is currently barred from public office following a 2025 conviction for financial misconduct. Her appeal trial is scheduled for early 2026. The poll aligns with other recent surveys, including one by Elabe, which also showed Bardella leading in first-round projections according to Reuters.

Despite his current dominance in the polls, Odoxa cautions that being an early favorite does not guarantee victory. Historical patterns show that broad political alliances have previously defeated far-right candidates in the second round of presidential elections. Additionally, the RN did not secure a majority in the 2024 legislative elections, highlighting the challenges of translating poll strength into electoral success.

The results reflect a broader shift in French politics, with the National Rally and other right-wing parties gaining traction at the expense of centrist and leftist blocs. However, with over a year until the 2027 election, political dynamics could shift significantly in response to economic developments, policy debates, and unforeseen events.