Occidental Petroleum Outlook - A Mixed Signal Amid Volatile Trends

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Occidental Petroleum's technical outlook is weak with an internal diagnostic score of 2.53 (out of 10), suggesting it's best to avoid for now.

News Highlights

• May 29 - Colombia's E&P Investment Surge: Colombia’s oil and gas E&P investment is expected to increase by 8% in 2025 to $4.68 billion. While this may not directly affect Occidental, it highlights growing global E&P interest.
• May 31 - Nigeria’s Executive Order: President Tinubu introduced an executive order to cut project costs and boost oil and gas revenue, which could improve regional oil production and investment, indirectly benefiting global players like OXY.
• May 31 - OPEC+ Output Hike: OPEC+ is considering increasing oil output for July by over 411,000 barrels per day. Higher global supply could pressure oil prices and affect Occidental's revenue outlook.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Recent analyst activity for Occidental Petroleum has been neutral, with all three active institutions in the last 20 days assigning a Neutral rating. The simple average rating score is 3.00, while the performance-weighted score is 2.73. These scores are in line with the stock’s recent price trend of falling by -4.07%, indicating a consistent bearish consensus.

On fundamentals, the model assigns an internal diagnostic score of 6.84 (out of 10) to Occidental, suggesting moderate strength in underlying metrics. Key factors include:

• Revenue-MV: 88.28% (score: 2.00)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit (%): 74.59% (score: 3.00)
• P/B ratio: 38.06% (score: 3.00)
• Inventory turnover ratio: 242.98% (score: 3.00)
• Net income to revenue: -22.49% (score: 0.00)
• Total assets turnover ratio: 15.66% (score: 2.00)
• Inventory turnover days: 74.08 days (score: 2.00)

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows remain negative with an internal diagnostic score of 7.85 (out of 10). While small investors are showing positive sentiment, large and extra-large investors are withdrawing, as evidenced by inflow ratios below 50% for all categories. This divergence suggests uncertainty in the stock among major players, despite retail optimism.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, the stock is under pressure, with 6 bearish indicators and 0 bullish ones in the past 5 days. Key indicators include:

• RSI Overbought: internal diagnostic score of 1.39 — suggesting a high risk of a pullback.
• WR Overbought: score of 3.08 — signaling a weak reversal potential.
• Ex-Dividend Date: score of 1.40 — historically linked to modest price declines.
• Bullish Engulfing: score of 1.44 — failed to generate follow-through buying in this case.

On September 10, 2025, the stock triggered signals including Ex-Dividend Date, Bullish Engulfing, and Dividend Record Date, all leaning bearish. The overall trend is weak, with a clear bias toward downside risk.

Conclusion

With a weak technical score, bearish flow from large investors, and a lack of positive analyst momentum, Occidental Petroleum is currently a stock to avoid for new positions. Investors are advised to wait for clearer signs of a trend reversal, such as a strong bullish candlestick pattern or a positive breakout from key support levels. For now, caution is warranted.